Kostyuk vs. Pegula: Match O/U 22.5
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 53¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 17
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 50%
1 arb excluded
$6.0K
-$57.85
52.8¢ → 53¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+10 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JA JAMJAMJAM4 | Underavg 52.8¢ | $4.4K | $4.3K | -$68.79 | 0% 2-493 (495) |
HI hi774cCTR | Overavg 47¢ | $841.29 | $859.19 | +$17.9 | 8% 37-420 (457) |
 VeryLucky888ARB<$100 | Overavg 47.5¢ | $606.12 | $483.15 | +$0.15 | 49% 235-240 (475) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 47.5¢ | $353.23 | $349.51 | -$2.37 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 52¢ | $131.12 | $133.64 | +$2.52 | |
 nigiri99CTR | Overavg 48¢ | $333.6 | $326.65 | -$6.95 | 52% 125-115 (240) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $2.6 | $2.6 | +$0 | 75% 15-5 (20) |
Invested
$4,384.79
Value
$4.3K
PnL
-$68.79
Record
0%
2-493 (495)
Invested
$841.29
Value
$859.19
PnL
+$17.9
Record
8%
37-420 (457)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100Invested
$606.12
Value
$483.15
PnL
+$0.15
Record
49%
235-240 (475)
Both legs:
nigiri99CTRInvested
$333.6
Value
$326.65
PnL
-$6.95
Record
52%
125-115 (240)
Invested
$2.6
Value
$2.6
PnL
+$0
Record
75%
15-5 (20)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.