Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Marta Kostyuk, while the market favors Jessica Pegula (63%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

WTA Finals, Group A: Marta Kostyuk vs Jessica Pegula

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Marta Kostyuk (86%) · Marta Kostyuk at 38¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 17

Marta Kostyuk38¢Jessica Pegula62¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Marta Kostyuk

Consensus Traders

Marta Kostyuk 86%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$13.74

Smart Money Entry

37¢ → 37.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

Research candidateMarta Kostyuk at 38%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Marta Kostyuk

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Jessica Pegula 63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Marta Kostyuk38%

Jessica Pegula63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Marta Kostyuk6 traders

Total Value$637.22

Total Shares1,699

Combined PnL+$12.13

Jessica Pegula1 trader

Total Value$201.18

Total Shares322

Combined PnL+$1.61

Marta Kostyuk — 86%Jessica Pegula — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Marta Kostyuk. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMarta Kostyuk 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedMarta Kostyuk 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Marta Kostyuk 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NM NM-PARB<$100	Marta Kostyukavg 37¢	$811.58	$817.04	+$5.46	60% 3442-2335 (5777)
└ Marta Kostyuk leg	Marta Kostyukavg 37¢	$554.99	$562.48	+$7.5
└ Jessica Pegula leg	Jessica Pegulaavg 63¢	$256.59	$254.56	-$2.04
GC GC-PCTR	Marta Kostyukavg 37¢	$461.97	$468.21	+$6.24	16% 66-347 (413)
DA darkumbreon88	Jessica Pegulaavg 62¢	$199.58	$201.18	+$1.61	61% 894-573 (1467)
VeryLucky888CTR	Marta Kostyukavg 37¢	$262.4	$129.67	+$5.11	49% 231-238 (469)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Marta Kostyukavg 37¢	$18.5	$19	+$0.5	52% 61-57 (118)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Marta Kostyukavg 37¢	$14.52	$14.72	+$0.2	48% 420-450 (870)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Marta Kostyukavg 37¢	$3.7	$3.75	+$0.05	31% 169-382 (551)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Marta Kostyukavg 37¢	$1.85	$1.88	+$0.02	24% 155-504 (659)

NM-PARB<$100

Marta Kostyuk

Invested

$811.58

Value

$817.04

PnL

+$5.46

Record

60%

3442-2335 (5777)

Both legs:

Marta Kostyuk$554.9937¢+$7.5

Jessica Pegula$256.5963¢-$2.04

GC-PCTR

Marta Kostyuk

Invested

$461.97

Value

$468.21

PnL

+$6.24

Record

16%

66-347 (413)

darkumbreon88

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$199.58

Value

$201.18

PnL

+$1.61

Record

61%

894-573 (1467)

VeryLucky888CTR

Marta Kostyuk

Invested

$262.4

Value

$129.67

PnL

+$5.11

Record

49%

231-238 (469)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Marta Kostyuk

Invested

$18.5

Value

$19

PnL

+$0.5

Record

52%

61-57 (118)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Marta Kostyuk

Invested

$14.52

Value

$14.72

PnL

+$0.2

Record

48%

420-450 (870)

sentrioCTR<$100

Marta Kostyuk

Invested

$3.7

Value

$3.75

PnL

+$0.05

Record

31%

169-382 (551)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Marta Kostyuk

Invested

$1.85

Value

$1.88

PnL

+$0.02

Record

24%

155-504 (659)

Research grade

Research candidateMarta Kostyuk at 38%

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Marta Kostyuk

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Jessica Pegula 63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Marta Kostyuk. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMarta Kostyuk 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedMarta Kostyuk 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Marta Kostyuk 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Marta Kostyuk wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.7%

37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$151.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

252.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.