Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Marta Kostyuk, while the market favors Linda Noskova (57%). 12 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

WTA Finals, Group A: Marta Kostyuk vs Linda Noskova

12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Marta Kostyuk (100%) · Marta Kostyuk at 43¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 15

Marta Kostyuk43¢Linda Noskova57¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Marta Kostyuk

Consensus Traders

Marta Kostyuk 100%

Total Value

$9.2K

Combined PnL

-$112.87

Smart Money Entry

43.7¢ → 42.5¢

-3% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

Research candidateMarta Kostyuk at 43%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Marta Kostyuk

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Linda Noskova 57%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Marta Kostyuk43%

Linda Noskova57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Marta Kostyuk12 traders

Total Value$9.2K

Total Shares21,232

Combined PnL-$112.87

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Marta Kostyukavg 43.2¢	$3.7K	$3.6K	-$59.53	50% 4741-4676 (9417)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Marta Kostyukavg 45¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$13.85	50% 2796-2767 (5563)
NO NotradecopyCTR	Marta Kostyukavg 45¢	$999.99	$988.88	-$11.11	48% 4060-4345 (8405)
GC GC-PCTR	Marta Kostyukavg 43¢	$860	$850	-$10	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
HI hi774cCTR	Marta Kostyukavg 45¢	$852	$842.54	-$9.47	46% 5332-6170 (11502)
VeryLucky888CTR	Marta Kostyukavg 43.6¢	$620.94	$605.33	-$15.61	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
NM NM-PCTR	Marta Kostyukavg 42.5¢	$549.12	$549.72	+$0.6	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
0xheavy888CTR	Marta Kostyukavg 42¢	$420	$425	+$5	56% 8260-6557 (14817)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Marta Kostyukavg 43.7¢	$42.4	$38.5	+$0.7	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Marta Kostyukavg 42¢	$21	$21.25	+$0.25	54% 6333-5398 (11731)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR<$100	Marta Kostyukavg 44¢	$15.08	$15.25	+$0.17	50% 549-553 (1102)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Marta Kostyukavg 43¢	$2.15	$2.13	-$0.02	52% 9022-8174 (17196)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Marta Kostyuk

Invested

$3,667.67

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$59.53

Record

50%

4741-4676 (9417)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Marta Kostyuk

Invested

$1,246.28

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$13.85

Record

50%

2796-2767 (5563)

NotradecopyCTR

Marta Kostyuk

Invested

$999.99

Value

$988.88

PnL

-$11.11

Record

48%

4060-4345 (8405)

GC-PCTR

Marta Kostyuk

Invested

$860

Value

$850

PnL

-$10

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

hi774cCTR

Marta Kostyuk

Invested

$852

Value

$842.54

PnL

-$9.47

Record

46%

5332-6170 (11502)

VeryLucky888CTR

Marta Kostyuk

Invested

$620.94

Value

$605.33

PnL

-$15.61

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

NM-PCTR

Marta Kostyuk

Invested

$549.12

Value

$549.72

PnL

+$0.6

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

0xheavy888CTR

Marta Kostyuk

Invested

$420

Value

$425

PnL

+$5

Record

56%

8260-6557 (14817)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Marta Kostyuk

Invested

$42.4

Value

$38.5

PnL

+$0.7

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Marta Kostyuk

Invested

$21

Value

$21.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

54%

6333-5398 (11731)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR<$100

Marta Kostyuk

Invested

$15.08

Value

$15.25

PnL

+$0.17

Record

50%

549-553 (1102)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Marta Kostyuk

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.13

PnL

-$0.02

Record

52%

9022-8174 (17196)

Research grade

Research candidateMarta Kostyuk at 43%

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Marta Kostyuk

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Linda Noskova 57%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Marta Kostyuk wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.