Courmayeur: Gabriela Knutson vs Alina Charaeva

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Alina Charaeva (50%) · Alina Charaeva at 88¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 4

Gabriela Knutson13¢Alina Charaeva87¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alina Charaeva

Consensus Traders

Alina Charaeva 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.4K

Combined PnL

$951.56

Smart Money Entry

73.9¢ → 87.5¢

+18% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlina Charaeva at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alina Charaeva

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Gabriela Knutson13%

Alina Charaeva88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alina Charaeva4 traders

Total Value$8.9K

Total Shares10,433

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Gabriela Knutson4 traders

Total Value$157

Total Shares615

Combined PnL-$256.99

Alina Charaeva — 50%Gabriela Knutson — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Alina Charaevaavg 75.2¢	$6.6K	$7.6K	+$910.04	54% 55721-47803 (103524)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Gabriela Knutsonavg 39.1¢	$2.3K	$1.8K	-$435.13	59% 44610-31007 (75617)
└ Alina Charaeva leg	Alina Charaevaavg 59¢	$897.22	$1.3K	+$386.73
└ Gabriela Knutson leg	Gabriela Knutsonavg 39.1¢	$1.4K	$540.23	-$821.86
HO HomeRunHazard	Alina Charaevaavg 64.9¢	$859.77	$1.1K	+$273.15	54% 16868-14145 (31013)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Gabriela Knutsonavg 67.2¢	$864.51	$540.78	-$93.54	54% 630-547 (1177)
└ Alina Charaeva leg	Alina Charaevaavg 46¢	$248.09	$429.01	+$164.89
└ Gabriela Knutson leg	Gabriela Knutsonavg 67.2¢	$366.55	$111.78	-$258.43
tradecraft	Alina Charaevaavg 77.4¢	$110.73	$117.98	+$7.25	52% 5875-5510 (11385)
poshposh	Alina Charaevaavg 71¢	$95.31	$113.43	+$18.12	60% 9374-6357 (15731)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Gabriela Knutsonavg 71.2¢	$349.56	$97.53	-$248.84	60% 3967-2670 (6637)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Gabriela Knutsonavg 37.1¢	$40.37	$39.7	-$0.68	62% 13614-8455 (22069)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Gabriela Knutsonavg 66¢	$25.11	$17.71	-$7.4	52% 13563-12405 (25968)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Gabriela Knutsonavg 38¢	$2.15	$2.07	-$0.08	49% 18605-19035 (37640)

RN1

Alina Charaeva

Invested

$6,641.08

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$910.04

Record

54%

55721-47803 (103524)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Gabriela Knutson

Invested

$2,259.31

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$435.13

Record

59%

44610-31007 (75617)

Both legs:

Alina Charaeva$897.2259¢+$386.73

Gabriela Knutson$1,362.0939.1¢-$821.86

HomeRunHazard

Alina Charaeva

Invested

$859.77

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$273.15

Record

54%

16868-14145 (31013)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Gabriela Knutson

Invested

$864.51

Value

$540.78

PnL

-$93.54

Record

54%

630-547 (1177)

Both legs:

Alina Charaeva$248.0946¢+$164.89

Gabriela Knutson$366.5567.2¢-$258.43

tradecraft

Alina Charaeva

Invested

$110.73

Value

$117.98

PnL

+$7.25

Record

52%

5875-5510 (11385)

poshposh

Alina Charaeva

Invested

$95.31

Value

$113.43

PnL

+$18.12

Record

60%

9374-6357 (15731)

thestingsnakeCTR

Gabriela Knutson

Invested

$349.56

Value

$97.53

PnL

-$248.84

Record

60%

3967-2670 (6637)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Gabriela Knutson

Invested

$40.37

Value

$39.7

PnL

-$0.68

Record

62%

13614-8455 (22069)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Gabriela Knutson

Invested

$25.11

Value

$17.71

PnL

-$7.4

Record

52%

13563-12405 (25968)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Gabriela Knutson

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.07

PnL

-$0.08

Record

49%

18605-19035 (37640)

Research grade

NeutralAlina Charaeva at 88%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Alina Charaeva

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alina Charaeva wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.