Chennai Open, Qualification: Jensi Dipakbhai Kanabar vs Weronika Falkowska

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Weronika Falkowska (50%) · Weronika Falkowska at 92¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 7

Jensi Dipakbhai Kanabar8¢Weronika Falkowska92¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Weronika Falkowska

Consensus Traders

Weronika Falkowska 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$93.52

Smart Money Entry

90.6¢ → 92.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralWeronika Falkowska at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Weronika Falkowska

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Jensi Dipakbhai Kanabar8%

Weronika Falkowska92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Weronika Falkowska3 traders

Total Value$758.09

Total Shares792

Combined PnL+$10.19

Jensi Dipakbhai Kanabar3 traders

Total Value$140.7

Total Shares1,372

Combined PnL+$83.34

Weronika Falkowska — 50%Jensi Dipakbhai Kanabar — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Jensi Dipakbhai Kanabaravg 10.4¢	$863.36	$750.58	-$112.78	54% 56596-48765 (105361)
└ Jensi Dipakbhai Kanabar leg	Jensi Dipakbhai Kanabaravg 10.4¢	$665.21	$542.07	-$123.14
└ Weronika Falkowska leg	Weronika Falkowskaavg 87¢	$198.15	$208.51	+$10.36
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Weronika Falkowskaavg 92.1¢	$332.09	$320.95	-$11.14	53% 3187-2811 (5998)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Weronika Falkowskaavg 88.7¢	$295.19	$314.32	+$24.11	52% 13782-12582 (26364)
BI BillBenter2026	Weronika Falkowskaavg 91¢	$125.61	$122.82	-$2.79	58% 18650-13710 (32360)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Jensi Dipakbhai Kanabaravg 3.6¢	$19.2	$58.45	+$39.24	60% 4065-2738 (6803)
SC SchruteBucksCTR<$100	Jensi Dipakbhai Kanabaravg 4¢	$15.92	$43.78	+$27.86	56% 1844-1439 (3283)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Jensi Dipakbhai Kanabaravg 5¢	$22.24	$38.47	+$16.23	51% 6003-5696 (11699)

RN1ARB<$100

Jensi Dipakbhai Kanabar

Invested

$863.36

Value

$750.58

PnL

-$112.78

Record

54%

56596-48765 (105361)

Both legs:

Jensi Dipakbhai Kanabar$665.2110.4¢-$123.14

Weronika Falkowska$198.1587¢+$10.36

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Weronika Falkowska

Invested

$332.09

Value

$320.95

PnL

-$11.14

Record

53%

3187-2811 (5998)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Weronika Falkowska

Invested

$295.19

Value

$314.32

PnL

+$24.11

Record

52%

13782-12582 (26364)

BillBenter2026

Weronika Falkowska

Invested

$125.61

Value

$122.82

PnL

-$2.79

Record

58%

18650-13710 (32360)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Jensi Dipakbhai Kanabar

Invested

$19.2

Value

$58.45

PnL

+$39.24

Record

60%

4065-2738 (6803)

SchruteBucksCTR<$100

Jensi Dipakbhai Kanabar

Invested

$15.92

Value

$43.78

PnL

+$27.86

Record

56%

1844-1439 (3283)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Jensi Dipakbhai Kanabar

Invested

$22.24

Value

$38.47

PnL

+$16.23

Record

51%

6003-5696 (11699)

Research grade

NeutralWeronika Falkowska at 92%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Weronika Falkowska

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Weronika Falkowska wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.