Curitiba: Francesca Jones vs Marria Urrutia

11 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Francesca Jones (61%) · Francesca Jones at 91¢ · $56K held · ends Nov 3

Francesca Jones91¢Marria Urrutia9¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Francesca Jones

Consensus Traders

Francesca Jones 61%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$55.9K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Entry

69.4¢ → 90.5¢

+30% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralFrancesca Jones at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Francesca Jones

11 of 18 top traders (61%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Francesca Jones91%

Marria Urrutia10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Francesca Jones11 traders

Total Value$35.8K

Total Shares40,879

Combined PnL+$4.6K

Marria Urrutia7 traders

Total Value$8.2K

Total Shares37,789

Combined PnL$-6.1K

Francesca Jones — 61%Marria Urrutia — 39%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Francesca Jones. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFrancesca Jones 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpFrancesca Jones 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMarria Urrutia 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedFrancesca Jones 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Francesca Jones 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Francesca Jonesavg 62.5¢	$9.7K	$13.7K	+$4.0K	54% 55318-47360 (102678)
UP UpTheBlues	Francesca Jonesavg 73.4¢	$10.1K	$10.7K	+$571.05	59% 44247-30614 (74861)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Francesca Jonesavg 73.3¢	$6.5K	$6.7K	+$118.36	52% 13478-12328 (25806)
└ Francesca Jones leg	Francesca Jonesavg 73.3¢	$5.2K	$5.0K	-$164.44
└ Marria Urrutia leg	Marria Urrutiaavg 23.9¢	$1.3K	$1.6K	+$282.8
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Marria Urrutiaavg 37.5¢	$9.0K	$5.3K	$-3.6K	49% 18391-18816 (37207)
YE yesmateARB<$100	Marria Urrutiaavg 29.8¢	$5.2K	$4.6K	-$565.26	52% 348-323 (671)
└ Marria Urrutia leg	Marria Urrutiaavg 29.8¢	$3.5K	$2.7K	-$728.47
└ Francesca Jones leg	Francesca Jonesavg 70¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$163.21
01 01258787xy48487484545122	Francesca Jonesavg 73¢	$4.9K	$4.5K	-$385.37	64% 256-146 (402)
VL vladivaCTR	Marria Urrutiaavg 28.7¢	$3.7K	$2.6K	$-1.1K	26% 61-170 (231)
TH thestingsnake	Francesca Jonesavg 72.3¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$142.78	60% 3897-2643 (6540)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Francesca Jonesavg 80.8¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$50.54	59% 29921-20647 (50568)
poshposh	Francesca Jonesavg 67¢	$933.67	$1.1K	+$119.27	60% 9086-6001 (15087)
latvian.demon	Francesca Jonesavg 64.6¢	$500	$719.67	+$219.67	54% 615-526 (1141)
HO HomeRunHazard	Francesca Jonesavg 93.5¢	$550.03	$547.13	-$2.89	54% 16738-14040 (30778)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Francesca Jonesavg 77.2¢	$2.8K	$543.21	-$83.67	53% 575-515 (1090)
└ Francesca Jones leg	Francesca Jonesavg 77.2¢	$441.61	$428.84	-$184.22
└ Marria Urrutia leg	Marria Urrutiaavg 22.8¢	$104.46	$114.37	+$100.55
EF efntrick	Francesca Jonesavg 66.6¢	$356.42	$379	+$22.58	48% 3613-3865 (7478)
0X 0xAA08417743cA4Ed010Ce0d27899b530E50faD98a-1772583788295CTR	Marria Urrutiaavg 53.6¢	$1.3K	$169.81	$-1.1K	67% 205-100 (305)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Francesca Jonesavg 87.8¢	$75.5	$79.98	+$4.48	58% 18298-13444 (31742)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Marria Urrutiaavg 31.3¢	$83.3	$58.74	-$24.56	67% 23024-11423 (34447)
HRTrading<$100	Francesca Jonesavg 65.8¢	$45.54	$54.86	+$9.32	54% 2558-2193 (4751)
SA Saber-greedCTR	Marria Urrutiaavg 41¢	$123.91	$21.15	-$102.75	59% 2506-1737 (4243)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Marria Urrutiaavg 6¢	$12	$14	+$2	58% 40382-29168 (69550)
BE berlinskiesCTR<$100	Marria Urrutiaavg 55.3¢	$69.99	$8.85	-$61.14	58% 5718-4199 (9917)

RN1

Francesca Jones

Invested

$9,740.52

Value

$13.7K

PnL

+$4.0K

Record

54%

55318-47360 (102678)

UpTheBlues

Francesca Jones

Invested

$10,139.81

Value

$10.7K

PnL

+$571.05

Record

59%

44247-30614 (74861)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Francesca Jones

Invested

$6,537.27

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$118.36

Record

52%

13478-12328 (25806)

Both legs:

Francesca Jones$5,210.8873.3¢-$164.44

Marria Urrutia$1,326.3923.9¢+$282.8

omnibus-076daaCTR

Marria Urrutia

Invested

$8,964.54

Value

$5.3K

PnL

$-3.6K

Record

49%

18391-18816 (37207)

yesmateARB<$100

Marria Urrutia

Invested

$5,204.04

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$565.26

Record

52%

348-323 (671)

Both legs:

Marria Urrutia$3,455.0629.8¢-$728.47

Francesca Jones$1,748.9870¢+$163.21

01258787xy48487484545122

Francesca Jones

Invested

$4,910.35

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$385.37

Record

64%

256-146 (402)

vladivaCTR

Marria Urrutia

Invested

$3,721.3

Value

$2.6K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

26%

61-170 (231)

thestingsnake

Francesca Jones

Invested

$2,257.13

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$142.78

Record

60%

3897-2643 (6540)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Francesca Jones

Invested

$1,811.02

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$50.54

Record

59%

29921-20647 (50568)

poshposh

Francesca Jones

Invested

$933.67

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$119.27

Record

60%

9086-6001 (15087)

latvian.demon

Francesca Jones

Invested

$500

Value

$719.67

PnL

+$219.67

Record

54%

615-526 (1141)

HomeRunHazard

Francesca Jones

Invested

$550.03

Value

$547.13

PnL

-$2.89

Record

54%

16738-14040 (30778)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Francesca Jones

Invested

$2,774.65

Value

$543.21

PnL

-$83.67

Record

53%

575-515 (1090)

Both legs:

Francesca Jones$441.6177.2¢-$184.22

Marria Urrutia$104.4622.8¢+$100.55

efntrick

Francesca Jones

Invested

$356.42

Value

$379

PnL

+$22.58

Record

48%

3613-3865 (7478)

0xAA08417743cA4Ed010Ce0d27899b530E50faD98a-1772583788295CTR

Marria Urrutia

Invested

$1,300

Value

$169.81

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

67%

205-100 (305)

BillBenter2026<$100

Francesca Jones

Invested

$75.5

Value

$79.98

PnL

+$4.48

Record

58%

18298-13444 (31742)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Marria Urrutia

Invested

$83.3

Value

$58.74

PnL

-$24.56

Record

67%

23024-11423 (34447)

HRTrading<$100

Francesca Jones

Invested

$45.54

Value

$54.86

PnL

+$9.32

Record

54%

2558-2193 (4751)

Saber-greedCTR

Marria Urrutia

Invested

$123.91

Value

$21.15

PnL

-$102.75

Record

59%

2506-1737 (4243)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Marria Urrutia

Invested

$12

Value

$14

PnL

+$2

Record

58%

40382-29168 (69550)

berlinskiesCTR<$100

Marria Urrutia

Invested

$69.99

Value

$8.85

PnL

-$61.14

Record

58%

5718-4199 (9917)

Research grade

NeutralFrancesca Jones at 91%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Francesca Jones

11 of 18 top traders (61%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Francesca Jones. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFrancesca Jones 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpFrancesca Jones 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMarria Urrutia 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedFrancesca Jones 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Francesca Jones 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Francesca Jones wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.