Curitiba: Francesca Jones vs Nauhany Leme Da Silva
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Francesca Jones (75%) · Francesca Jones at 71¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Francesca Jones
4
Francesca Jones 75%
1 arb excluded
$1.8K
-$35.71
75.3¢ → 70.5¢
-6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralFrancesca Jones at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Francesca Jones. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OL oliverea | Francesca Jonesavg 75.7¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$33.27 | 59% 311-216 (527) |
 VeryLucky888 | Francesca Jonesavg 74¢ | $384.22 | $364.99 | -$2.5 | 58% 41488-30106 (71594) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Francesca Jonesavg 72.3¢ | $431.5 | $351.92 | +$26.02 | 46% 7940-9367 (17307) |
| └ Francesca Jones leg | Francesca Jonesavg 72.3¢ | $247.5 | $248.29 | +$0.79 | |
| └ Nauhany Leme Da Silva leg | Nauhany Leme Da Silvaavg 24.5¢ | $92.45 | $103.63 | +$25.22 | |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Francesca Jonesavg 73¢ | $10.95 | $10.88 | -$0.07 | 47% 2257-2545 (4802) |
EU EulhunterCTR<$100 | Nauhany Leme Da Silvaavg 27¢ | $7.4 | $7.4 | +$0.14 | 55% 5713-4751 (10464) |
Invested
$1,148
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$33.27
Record
59%
311-216 (527)
VeryLucky888Invested
$384.22
Value
$364.99
PnL
-$2.5
Record
58%
41488-30106 (71594)
Invested
$431.5
Value
$351.92
PnL
+$26.02
Record
46%
7940-9367 (17307)
Both legs:
Invested
$10.95
Value
$10.88
PnL
-$0.07
Record
47%
2257-2545 (4802)
Invested
$7.4
Value
$7.4
PnL
+$0.14
Record
55%
5713-4751 (10464)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.