Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open, Qualification: Emerson Jones vs Heather Watson

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Emerson Jones (82%) · Emerson Jones at 97¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 7

Emerson Jones97¢Heather Watson3¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Emerson Jones

Consensus Traders

Emerson Jones 82%

Total Value

$20.5K

Combined PnL

-$308

Smart Money Entry

95.5¢ → 97.3¢

+2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralEmerson Jones at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Emerson Jones

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Emerson Jones97%

Heather Watson3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Emerson Jones9 traders

Total Value$20.5K

Total Shares21,585

Combined PnL-$303.62

Heather Watson2 traders

Total Value$38.59

Total Shares968

Combined PnL-$4.39

Emerson Jones — 82%Heather Watson — 18%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CO cowcat	Emerson Jonesavg 96¢	$19.2K	$19.1K	-$100	53% 1559-1359 (2918)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Emerson Jonesavg 96¢	$439.05	$438.32	-$0.73	52% 13757-12562 (26319)
tradecraft	Emerson Jonesavg 94¢	$425.03	$309.73	-$115.3	51% 5995-5689 (11684)
TH thestingsnake	Emerson Jonesavg 93.2¢	$1.0K	$304.25	-$77.62	60% 4056-2734 (6790)
RN1	Emerson Jonesavg 72¢	$153.4	$147.95	-$5.45	54% 56479-48663 (105142)
VeryLucky888	Emerson Jonesavg 70¢	$105	$98.83	-$2.22	58% 41739-30322 (72061)
HRTrading<$100	Emerson Jonesavg 88.8¢	$58.21	$57.43	-$0.79	52% 4302-3911 (8213)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Heather Watsonavg 5¢	$40.88	$36.79	-$4.09	48% 805-879 (1684)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Emerson Jonesavg 70¢	$8.55	$8.43	-$0.12	47% 2324-2589 (4913)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Emerson Jonesavg 80¢	$9.6	$8.22	-$1.38	58% 18618-13687 (32305)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Heather Watsonavg 1.4¢	$2.1	$1.8	-$0.3	50% 2568-2610 (5178)

cowcat

Emerson Jones

Invested

$19,200

Value

$19.1K

PnL

-$100

Record

53%

1559-1359 (2918)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Emerson Jones

Invested

$439.05

Value

$438.32

PnL

-$0.73

Record

52%

13757-12562 (26319)

tradecraft

Emerson Jones

Invested

$425.03

Value

$309.73

PnL

-$115.3

Record

51%

5995-5689 (11684)

thestingsnake

Emerson Jones

Invested

$1,029.96

Value

$304.25

PnL

-$77.62

Record

60%

4056-2734 (6790)

RN1

Emerson Jones

Invested

$153.4

Value

$147.95

PnL

-$5.45

Record

54%

56479-48663 (105142)

VeryLucky888

Emerson Jones

Invested

$105

Value

$98.83

PnL

-$2.22

Record

58%

41739-30322 (72061)

HRTrading<$100

Emerson Jones

Invested

$58.21

Value

$57.43

PnL

-$0.79

Record

52%

4302-3911 (8213)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Heather Watson

Invested

$40.88

Value

$36.79

PnL

-$4.09

Record

48%

805-879 (1684)

ameisgoat11<$100

Emerson Jones

Invested

$8.55

Value

$8.43

PnL

-$0.12

Record

47%

2324-2589 (4913)

BillBenter2026<$100

Emerson Jones

Invested

$9.6

Value

$8.22

PnL

-$1.38

Record

58%

18618-13687 (32305)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Heather Watson

Invested

$2.1

Value

$1.8

PnL

-$0.3

Record

50%

2568-2610 (5178)

Research grade

NeutralEmerson Jones at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).

Smart Money Signal

Emerson Jones

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Emerson Jones wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.3%

97.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.