Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Maya Joint vs Maria Sakkari

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Maria Sakkari (22%) · Maria Sakkari at 65¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11

Maya Joint36¢Maria Sakkari64¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Maria Sakkari

Consensus Traders

Maria Sakkari 22%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$4.4

Smart Money Entry

64.2¢ → 64.5¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralMaria Sakkari at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Maria Sakkari

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Maya Joint36%

Maria Sakkari65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Maria Sakkari2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,717

Combined PnL+$4.57

Maya Joint7 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares3,188

Combined PnL-$8.97

Maria Sakkari — 22%Maya Joint — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA JAMJAMJAM4	Maria Sakkariavg 64.2¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$4.3	67% 3651-1816 (5467)
HI hi774cCTR	Maya Jointavg 35¢	$555.02	$555.02	+$0	50% 4941-4867 (9808)
GC GC-PCTR	Maya Jointavg 35¢	$175	$175	+$0	47% 1322-1513 (2835)
NM NM-PCTR	Maya Jointavg 35¢	$171.56	$174.01	+$2.45	46% 1299-1520 (2819)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Maya Jointavg 37.2¢	$157.25	$148.14	-$9.11	53% 1098-984 (2082)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Maya Jointavg 36¢	$53.46	$52	-$1.46	61% 13990-9022 (23012)
38 38791873984189<$100	Maria Sakkariavg 63¢	$17.03	$17.3	+$0.27	48% 57267-60865 (118132)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Maya Jointavg 37.2¢	$11.18	$10.53	-$0.65	50% 20420-20739 (41159)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Maya Jointavg 37.2¢	$3.62	$3.41	-$0.21	51% 1041-990 (2031)

JAMJAMJAM4

Maria Sakkari

Invested

$1,085.95

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$4.3

Record

67%

3651-1816 (5467)

hi774cCTR

Maya Joint

Invested

$555.02

Value

$555.02

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

4941-4867 (9808)

GC-PCTR

Maya Joint

Invested

$175

Value

$175

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

1322-1513 (2835)

NM-PCTR

Maya Joint

Invested

$171.56

Value

$174.01

PnL

+$2.45

Record

46%

1299-1520 (2819)

LightParadoxCTR

Maya Joint

Invested

$157.25

Value

$148.14

PnL

-$9.11

Record

53%

1098-984 (2082)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Maya Joint

Invested

$53.46

Value

$52

PnL

-$1.46

Record

61%

13990-9022 (23012)

38791873984189<$100

Maria Sakkari

Invested

$17.03

Value

$17.3

PnL

+$0.27

Record

48%

57267-60865 (118132)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Maya Joint

Invested

$11.18

Value

$10.53

PnL

-$0.65

Record

50%

20420-20739 (41159)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Maya Joint

Invested

$3.62

Value

$3.41

PnL

-$0.21

Record

51%

1041-990 (2031)

Research grade

NeutralMaria Sakkari at 65%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Maria Sakkari

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Maria Sakkari wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.