Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Selena Janicijevic, while the market favors Elizabeth Mandlik (100%). 6 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Queretaro: Selena Janicijevic vs Elizabeth Mandlik

6 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Selena Janicijevic (38%) · Selena Janicijevic at 0.1¢ · $49K held · ends Nov 4

Selena Janicijevic<1¢Elizabeth Mandlik>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Selena Janicijevic

Consensus Traders

Selena Janicijevic 38%

Total Value

$49.4K

Combined PnL

$-10.6K

Smart Money Entry

44.6¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidSelena Janicijevic at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Selena Janicijevic

6 of 16 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Elizabeth Mandlik 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Selena Janicijevic0%

Elizabeth Mandlik100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Selena Janicijevic6 traders

Total Value$16.3K

Total Shares65,321

Combined PnL$-14.3K

Elizabeth Mandlik10 traders

Total Value$33.1K

Total Shares38,755

Combined PnL+$3.7K

Selena Janicijevic — 38%Elizabeth Mandlik — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on Selena Janicijevic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Elizabeth Mandlik) and the top 1000 (10 on Selena Janicijevic) disagree here.

whaleSelena Janicijevic 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpSelena Janicijevic 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrElizabeth Mandlik 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedElizabeth Mandlik 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Selena Janicijevic 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Selena Janicijevicavg 43.7¢	$23.4K	$14.6K	$-8.8K	59% 44789-31177 (75966)
RN1	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 54.1¢	$7.4K	$12.3K	+$5.0K	54% 55844-47942 (103786)
LA landighertz	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 99.9¢	$9.4K	$9.4K	+$4.71	99% 1126-4 (1130)
HV HVAB	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 62¢	$7.9K	$4.0K	$-2.3K	76% 561-181 (742)
ZaiZoiBele	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 66.6¢	$9.4K	$3.9K	+$571.24	80% 4974-1230 (6204)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 51¢	$2.3K	$2.7K	+$360.97	52% 13597-12434 (26031)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Selena Janicijevicavg 47.7¢	$5.6K	$1.1K	$-4.5K	54% 16884-14152 (31036)
poshposh	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 53.5¢	$459	$571.5	+$112.5	59% 9478-6467 (15945)
1L 1lovejumpCTR	Selena Janicijevicavg 53.6¢	$1.3K	$409.92	-$123.73	53% 641-564 (1205)
BI BillBenter2026	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 55.7¢	$139.31	$122.5	-$16.81	58% 18441-13525 (31966)
latvian.demonCTR	Selena Janicijevicavg 67¢	$134	$102	-$32	54% 646-549 (1195)
tradecraft<$100	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 51¢	$51.98	$90.61	+$38.63	52% 5899-5543 (11442)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Selena Janicijevicavg 43¢	$1.4K	$39.89	-$871.36	60% 3982-2681 (6663)
TRCMCTR<$100	Selena Janicijevicavg 53.3¢	$8.58	$8.21	-$0.37	55% 3919-3156 (7075)
HRTrading<$100	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 52¢	$6.2	$6.04	-$0.16	53% 3243-2909 (6152)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 64¢	$5	$2.63	-$0.58	47% 2102-2381 (4483)

UpTheBluesCTR

Selena Janicijevic

Invested

$23,444.22

Value

$14.6K

PnL

$-8.8K

Record

59%

44789-31177 (75966)

RN1

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$7,365.3

Value

$12.3K

PnL

+$5.0K

Record

54%

55844-47942 (103786)

landighertz

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$9,407.6

Value

$9.4K

PnL

+$4.71

Record

99%

1126-4 (1130)

HVAB

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$7,881.9

Value

$4.0K

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

76%

561-181 (742)

ZaiZoiBele

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$9,445.29

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$571.24

Record

80%

4974-1230 (6204)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$2,313.96

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$360.97

Record

52%

13597-12434 (26031)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Selena Janicijevic

Invested

$5,575.15

Value

$1.1K

PnL

$-4.5K

Record

54%

16884-14152 (31036)

poshposh

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$459

Value

$571.5

PnL

+$112.5

Record

59%

9478-6467 (15945)

1lovejumpCTR

Selena Janicijevic

Invested

$1,252.84

Value

$409.92

PnL

-$123.73

Record

53%

641-564 (1205)

BillBenter2026

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$139.31

Value

$122.5

PnL

-$16.81

Record

58%

18441-13525 (31966)

latvian.demonCTR

Selena Janicijevic

Invested

$134

Value

$102

PnL

-$32

Record

54%

646-549 (1195)

tradecraft<$100

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$51.98

Value

$90.61

PnL

+$38.63

Record

52%

5899-5543 (11442)

thestingsnakeCTR

Selena Janicijevic

Invested

$1,409.87

Value

$39.89

PnL

-$871.36

Record

60%

3982-2681 (6663)

TRCMCTR<$100

Selena Janicijevic

Invested

$8.58

Value

$8.21

PnL

-$0.37

Record

55%

3919-3156 (7075)

HRTrading<$100

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$6.2

Value

$6.04

PnL

-$0.16

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

ameisgoat11<$100

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

Value

$2.63

PnL

-$0.58

Record

47%

2102-2381 (4483)

Research grade

AvoidSelena Janicijevic at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Selena Janicijevic

6 of 16 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Elizabeth Mandlik 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on Selena Janicijevic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Elizabeth Mandlik) and the top 1000 (10 on Selena Janicijevic) disagree here.

whaleSelena Janicijevic 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpSelena Janicijevic 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrElizabeth Mandlik 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedElizabeth Mandlik 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Selena Janicijevic 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Selena Janicijevic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.