Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Elsa Jacquemot, while the market favors Elizara Yaneva (54%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Courmayeur: Elsa Jacquemot vs Elizara Yaneva
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Elsa Jacquemot (60%) · Elsa Jacquemot at 47¢ · $865 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Elsa Jacquemot
5
Elsa Jacquemot 60%
$864.8
$6.47
46.2¢ → 46.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralElsa Jacquemot at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Elizara Yaneva 54%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Elsa Jacquemot. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OL oliverea | Elizara Yanevaavg 53¢ | $369.91 | $369.91 | +$3.49 | 59% 311-216 (527) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Elsa Jacquemotavg 46¢ | $230 | $232.5 | +$2.5 | 58% 41488-30106 (71594) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Elsa Jacquemotavg 46.4¢ | $150.22 | $150.6 | +$0.38 | 46% 7940-9367 (17307) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Elsa Jacquemotavg 46.5¢ | $111.6 | $106.95 | +$0.05 | 56% 7053-5654 (12707) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100 | Elizara Yanevaavg 53¢ | $4.84 | $4.84 | +$0.05 | 55% 1723-1416 (3139) |
Invested
$369.91
Value
$369.91
PnL
+$3.49
Record
59%
311-216 (527)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$230
Value
$232.5
PnL
+$2.5
Record
58%
41488-30106 (71594)
Invested
$150.22
Value
$150.6
PnL
+$0.38
Record
46%
7940-9367 (17307)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$111.6
Value
$106.95
PnL
+$0.05
Record
56%
7053-5654 (12707)
Invested
$4.84
Value
$4.84
PnL
+$0.05
Record
55%
1723-1416 (3139)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.