Courmayeur: Elsa Jacquemot vs Caroline Werner

1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Elsa Jacquemot (13%) · Elsa Jacquemot at 76¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 3

Elsa Jacquemot76¢Caroline Werner24¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Elsa Jacquemot

Consensus Traders

Elsa Jacquemot 13%

Total Value

$17.0K

Combined PnL

-$850.14

Research grade

NeutralElsa Jacquemot at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Elsa Jacquemot

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Elsa Jacquemot76%

Caroline Werner25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Elsa Jacquemot1 trader

Total Value$13.0K

Total Shares19,304

Combined PnL$-1.8K

Caroline Werner7 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares12,866

Combined PnL+$975.45

Elsa Jacquemot — 13%Caroline Werner — 87%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xc1a9273b15a17d21AF09DddB42b9239B93D4e2Db-1777826537793	Elsa Jacquemotavg 77¢	$14.9K	$13.0K	$-1.8K	63% 151-90 (241)
RN1CTR	Caroline Werneravg 23¢	$1.1K	$1.6K	+$475	54% 55710-47796 (103506)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Caroline Werneravg 23.4¢	$639.01	$888.47	+$249.46	50% 2460-2452 (4912)
VeryLucky888CTR	Caroline Werneravg 23.2¢	$580	$611.28	+$32.52	58% 40750-29469 (70219)
HI hi774cCTR	Caroline Werneravg 23¢	$337.98	$477.58	+$139.6	52% 4656-4364 (9020)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Caroline Werneravg 23.6¢	$232.3	$319.64	+$87.34	62% 13612-8453 (22065)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Caroline Werneravg 30¢	$43.2	$46.8	-$6.48	58% 28120-20725 (48845)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Caroline Werneravg 30¢	$12.01	$10	-$2	56% 6910-5524 (12434)

0xc1a9273b15a17d21AF09DddB42b9239B93D4e2Db-1777826537793

Elsa Jacquemot

Invested

$14,855.54

Value

$13.0K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

63%

151-90 (241)

RN1CTR

Caroline Werner

Invested

$1,150

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$475

Record

54%

55710-47796 (103506)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Caroline Werner

Invested

$639.01

Value

$888.47

PnL

+$249.46

Record

50%

2460-2452 (4912)

VeryLucky888CTR

Caroline Werner

Invested

$580

Value

$611.28

PnL

+$32.52

Record

58%

40750-29469 (70219)

hi774cCTR

Caroline Werner

Invested

$337.98

Value

$477.58

PnL

+$139.6

Record

52%

4656-4364 (9020)

LilybaeumCTR

Caroline Werner

Invested

$232.3

Value

$319.64

PnL

+$87.34

Record

62%

13612-8453 (22065)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Caroline Werner

Invested

$43.2

Value

$46.8

PnL

-$6.48

Record

58%

28120-20725 (48845)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Caroline Werner

Invested

$12.01

Value

$10

PnL

-$2

Record

56%

6910-5524 (12434)

Research grade

NeutralElsa Jacquemot at 76%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Elsa Jacquemot

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Elsa Jacquemot wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.