Courmayeur: Elsa Jacquemot vs Alina Charaeva

10 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Alina Charaeva (59%) · Alina Charaeva at 87¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 7

Elsa Jacquemot14¢Alina Charaeva86¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alina Charaeva

Consensus Traders

Alina Charaeva 59%

Total Value

$7.9K

Combined PnL

$93.94

Smart Money Entry

85¢ → 86.5¢

+2% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlina Charaeva at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alina Charaeva

10 of 17 top traders (59%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Elsa Jacquemot14%

Alina Charaeva87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alina Charaeva10 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares8,255

Combined PnL+$93.03

Elsa Jacquemot7 traders

Total Value$413.47

Total Shares1,783

Combined PnL+$0.91

Alina Charaeva — 59%Elsa Jacquemot — 41%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Alina Charaevaavg 85.7¢	$5.7K	$5.8K	+$127.32	59% 45816-32172 (77988)
1L 1lovejump	Alina Charaevaavg 87.8¢	$796.8	$544.06	-$33.2	53% 665-586 (1251)
0X 0xE71359d50Ea42c73bFf065ec47F418506A7aC9a0-1771230981470	Alina Charaevaavg 75.9¢	$500	$503.63	+$3.63	71% 356-142 (498)
TH thestingsnake	Alina Charaevaavg 85.2¢	$350.6	$252.13	+$0.04	60% 4069-2739 (6808)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Alina Charaevaavg 85.9¢	$193.98	$192.74	-$1.25	52% 13785-12588 (26373)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Elsa Jacquemotavg 39.3¢	$175.72	$181.17	+$5.45	62% 13707-8571 (22278)
tradecraft	Alina Charaevaavg 84¢	$155.4	$151.7	-$3.7	51% 6007-5697 (11704)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Elsa Jacquemotavg 13¢	$95.5	$91.83	-$3.67	48% 922-993 (1915)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Elsa Jacquemotavg 40¢	$83.2	$84.55	+$1.35	55% 7124-5713 (12837)
PA pauleta23<$100	Alina Charaevaavg 82¢	$39.8	$40.08	+$0.28	67% 23335-11740 (35075)
poshposhCTR<$100	Elsa Jacquemotavg 10¢	$30	$27	-$3	59% 10176-7169 (17345)
0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18<$100	Alina Charaevaavg 89¢	$17.8	$17.5	-$0.3	66% 557-291 (848)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Elsa Jacquemotavg 40¢	$17.2	$17.42	+$0.22	58% 28695-21181 (49876)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Elsa Jacquemotavg 10¢	$10.5	$11.03	+$0.53	59% 30472-21186 (51658)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Alina Charaevaavg 84¢	$8.4	$8.45	+$0.05	85% 5317-914 (6231)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Alina Charaevaavg 82¢	$8.2	$8.35	+$0.15	51% 1446-1390 (2836)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Elsa Jacquemotavg 14¢	$0.44	$0.49	+$0.05	49% 7973-8309 (16282)

UpTheBlues

Alina Charaeva

Invested

$5,668.74

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$127.32

Record

59%

45816-32172 (77988)

1lovejump

Alina Charaeva

Invested

$796.8

Value

$544.06

PnL

-$33.2

Record

53%

665-586 (1251)

0xE71359d50Ea42c73bFf065ec47F418506A7aC9a0-1771230981470

Alina Charaeva

Invested

$500

Value

$503.63

PnL

+$3.63

Record

71%

356-142 (498)

thestingsnake

Alina Charaeva

Invested

$350.6

Value

$252.13

PnL

+$0.04

Record

60%

4069-2739 (6808)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Alina Charaeva

Invested

$193.98

Value

$192.74

PnL

-$1.25

Record

52%

13785-12588 (26373)

LilybaeumCTR

Elsa Jacquemot

Invested

$175.72

Value

$181.17

PnL

+$5.45

Record

62%

13707-8571 (22278)

tradecraft

Alina Charaeva

Invested

$155.4

Value

$151.7

PnL

-$3.7

Record

51%

6007-5697 (11704)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Elsa Jacquemot

Invested

$95.5

Value

$91.83

PnL

-$3.67

Record

48%

922-993 (1915)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Elsa Jacquemot

Invested

$83.2

Value

$84.55

PnL

+$1.35

Record

55%

7124-5713 (12837)

pauleta23<$100

Alina Charaeva

Invested

$39.8

Value

$40.08

PnL

+$0.28

Record

67%

23335-11740 (35075)

poshposhCTR<$100

Elsa Jacquemot

Invested

$30

Value

$27

PnL

-$3

Record

59%

10176-7169 (17345)

0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18<$100

Alina Charaeva

Invested

$17.8

Value

$17.5

PnL

-$0.3

Record

66%

557-291 (848)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Elsa Jacquemot

Invested

$17.2

Value

$17.42

PnL

+$0.22

Record

58%

28695-21181 (49876)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Elsa Jacquemot

Invested

$10.5

Value

$11.03

PnL

+$0.53

Record

59%

30472-21186 (51658)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Alina Charaeva

Invested

$8.4

Value

$8.45

PnL

+$0.05

Record

85%

5317-914 (6231)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Alina Charaeva

Invested

$8.2

Value

$8.35

PnL

+$0.15

Record

51%

1446-1390 (2836)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Elsa Jacquemot

Invested

$0.44

Value

$0.49

PnL

+$0.05

Record

49%

7973-8309 (16282)

Research grade

NeutralAlina Charaeva at 87%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Alina Charaeva

10 of 17 top traders (59%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alina Charaeva wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.