Queretaro: Katherine Hui vs Bianca Andreescu
6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Bianca Andreescu (60%) · Bianca Andreescu at 98¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Bianca Andreescu
10
Bianca Andreescu 60%
$3.5K
$18.72
95.5¢ → 98.5¢
+3% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralBianca Andreescu at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Bianca Andreescuavg 95¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | -$8.88 | 54% 55411-47463 (102874) |
TH thestingsnake | Bianca Andreescuavg 96.3¢ | $858.1 | $843.53 | -$14.56 | 60% 3930-2656 (6586) |
1L 1lovejump | Bianca Andreescuavg 96.4¢ | $383.66 | $304.98 | -$4.09 | 53% 601-530 (1131) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Bianca Andreescuavg 96.2¢ | $72.15 | $65.25 | -$6.9 | 49% 18462-18884 (37346) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Katherine Huiavg 4.6¢ | $53.43 | $62.69 | +$9.26 | 54% 16758-14063 (30821) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Katherine Huiavg 1.9¢ | $7.44 | $50.87 | +$43.44 | 60% 9159-6104 (15263) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Bianca Andreescuavg 95.3¢ | $28.32 | $28.54 | +$0.22 | 54% 2678-2303 (4981) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100 | Katherine Huiavg 3.9¢ | $9.28 | $10.6 | +$1.33 | 52% 13520-12365 (25885) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Bianca Andreescuavg 96.1¢ | $9.49 | $9.44 | -$0.05 | 67% 23053-11450 (34503) |
SC SchruteBucksCTR<$100 | Katherine Huiavg 4.1¢ | $5.32 | $0.21 | -$1.03 | 56% 1794-1404 (3198) |
RN1Invested
$2,160.66
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$8.88
Record
54%
55411-47463 (102874)
Invested
$858.1
Value
$843.53
PnL
-$14.56
Record
60%
3930-2656 (6586)
Invested
$383.66
Value
$304.98
PnL
-$4.09
Record
53%
601-530 (1131)
Invested
$72.15
Value
$65.25
PnL
-$6.9
Record
49%
18462-18884 (37346)
Invested
$53.43
Value
$62.69
PnL
+$9.26
Record
54%
16758-14063 (30821)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$7.44
Value
$50.87
PnL
+$43.44
Record
60%
9159-6104 (15263)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$28.32
Value
$28.54
PnL
+$0.22
Record
54%
2678-2303 (4981)
Invested
$9.28
Value
$10.6
PnL
+$1.33
Record
52%
13520-12365 (25885)
Invested
$9.49
Value
$9.44
PnL
-$0.05
Record
67%
23053-11450 (34503)
Invested
$5.32
Value
$0.21
PnL
-$1.03
Record
56%
1794-1404 (3198)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
RN1
Bianca Andreescu — $2.2K
thestingsnake
Bianca Andreescu — $843.53
1lovejump
Bianca Andreescu — $304.98
omnibus-076daa
Bianca Andreescu — $65.25
HomeRunHazard
CTRKatherine Hui — $62.69
poshposh
CTRKatherine Hui — $50.87
HRTrading
Bianca Andreescu — $28.54
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
CTRKatherine Hui — $10.6
pauleta23
Bianca Andreescu — $9.44
SchruteBucks
CTRKatherine Hui — $0.21