Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Carmen Andreea Herea, while the market favors Carole Monnet (79%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Queretaro: Carmen Andreea Herea vs Carole Monnet

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Carmen Andreea Herea (80%) · Carmen Andreea Herea at 21¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4

Carmen Andreea Herea21¢Carole Monnet79¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Carmen Andreea Herea

Consensus Traders

Carmen Andreea Herea 80%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$216.36

Smart Money Entry

20¢ → 21¢

+5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidCarmen Andreea Herea at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Carmen Andreea Herea

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Carole Monnet 79%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Carmen Andreea Herea21%

Carole Monnet79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Carmen Andreea Herea4 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares6,131

Combined PnL+$214.29

Carole Monnet1 trader

Total Value$196.7

Total Shares257

Combined PnL+$2.07

Carmen Andreea Herea — 80%Carole Monnet — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Carmen Andreea Hereaavg 20¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$175	54% 55711-47797 (103508)
OM omnibus-076daa	Carole Monnetavg 75.7¢	$194.63	$196.7	+$2.07	49% 18595-19019 (37614)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Carmen Andreea Hereaavg 20¢	$152.57	$179.27	+$26.7	50% 2460-2452 (4912)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100	Carmen Andreea Hereaavg 20¢	$56.77	$66.71	+$9.94	47% 2405-2688 (5093)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Carmen Andreea Hereaavg 20.3¢	$17.08	$19.74	+$2.66	62% 13612-8453 (22065)

RN1CTR

Carmen Andreea Herea

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$175

Record

54%

55711-47797 (103508)

omnibus-076daa

Carole Monnet

Invested

$194.63

Value

$196.7

PnL

+$2.07

Record

49%

18595-19019 (37614)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Carmen Andreea Herea

Invested

$152.57

Value

$179.27

PnL

+$26.7

Record

50%

2460-2452 (4912)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100

Carmen Andreea Herea

Invested

$56.77

Value

$66.71

PnL

+$9.94

Record

47%

2405-2688 (5093)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Carmen Andreea Herea

Invested

$17.08

Value

$19.74

PnL

+$2.66

Record

62%

13612-8453 (22065)

Research grade

AvoidCarmen Andreea Herea at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Carmen Andreea Herea

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Carole Monnet 79%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Carmen Andreea Herea wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance22.9%

21.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$337.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

437.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.