Queretaro: Polona Hercog vs Valeriya Strakhova

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Polona Hercog (75%) · Polona Hercog at 74¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 5

Polona Hercog74¢Valeriya Strakhova26¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Polona Hercog

Consensus Traders

Polona Hercog 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$96.73

Smart Money Entry

79.5¢ → 73.5¢

-8% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralPolona Hercog at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Polona Hercog

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Polona Hercog74%

Valeriya Strakhova27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Polona Hercog6 traders

Total Value$294.77

Total Shares352

Combined PnL+$15.23

Valeriya Strakhova2 traders

Total Value$136.88

Total Shares467

Combined PnL+$81.5

Polona Hercog — 75%Valeriya Strakhova — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Polona Hercogavg 81.4¢	$817.41	$749.24	-$68.17	52% 13670-12491 (26161)
└ Polona Hercog leg	Polona Hercogavg 81.4¢	$605.75	$517.01	-$88.74
└ Valeriya Strakhova leg	Valeriya Strakhovaavg 27.8¢	$211.65	$232.23	+$20.58
BI BillBenter2026	Polona Hercogavg 77.8¢	$125.32	$141.68	+$16.36	58% 18510-13598 (32108)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Valeriya Strakhovaavg 9.2¢	$34.67	$114.81	+$80.14	54% 17010-14258 (31268)
VeryLucky888	Polona Hercogavg 82¢	$116.44	$112.18	-$4.26	58% 41266-29916 (71182)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Polona Hercogavg 76.9¢	$23.56	$26.98	+$3.42	60% 4006-2695 (6701)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Valeriya Strakhovaavg 23¢	$20.71	$22.07	+$1.36	52% 3741-3403 (7144)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Polona Hercogavg 78¢	$7.77	$7.62	-$0.15	68% 457-217 (674)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Polona Hercogavg 82¢	$4.1	$3.95	-$0.15	47% 2189-2483 (4672)
RN1<$100	Polona Hercogavg 77¢	$2.35	$2.36	+$0.02	54% 56053-48184 (104237)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Polona Hercog

Invested

$817.41

Value

$749.24

PnL

-$68.17

Record

52%

13670-12491 (26161)

Both legs:

Polona Hercog$605.7581.4¢-$88.74

Valeriya Strakhova$211.6527.8¢+$20.58

BillBenter2026

Polona Hercog

Invested

$125.32

Value

$141.68

PnL

+$16.36

Record

58%

18510-13598 (32108)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Valeriya Strakhova

Invested

$34.67

Value

$114.81

PnL

+$80.14

Record

54%

17010-14258 (31268)

VeryLucky888

Polona Hercog

Invested

$116.44

Value

$112.18

PnL

-$4.26

Record

58%

41266-29916 (71182)

thestingsnake<$100

Polona Hercog

Invested

$23.56

Value

$26.98

PnL

+$3.42

Record

60%

4006-2695 (6701)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Valeriya Strakhova

Invested

$20.71

Value

$22.07

PnL

+$1.36

Record

52%

3741-3403 (7144)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Polona Hercog

Invested

$7.77

Value

$7.62

PnL

-$0.15

Record

68%

457-217 (674)

ameisgoat11<$100

Polona Hercog

Invested

$4.1

Value

$3.95

PnL

-$0.15

Record

47%

2189-2483 (4672)

RN1<$100

Polona Hercog

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.36

PnL

+$0.02

Record

54%

56053-48184 (104237)

Research grade

NeutralPolona Hercog at 74%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Polona Hercog

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Polona Hercog wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.