Sopo: Polona Hercog vs Varvara Lepchenko

14 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Polona Hercog (78%) · Polona Hercog at 88¢ · $33K held · ends Nov 17

Polona Hercog88¢Varvara Lepchenko12¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Polona Hercog

Consensus Traders

Polona Hercog 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$33.1K

Combined PnL

$5.8K

Smart Money Entry

57.6¢ → 87.5¢

+52% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralPolona Hercog at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Polona Hercog

14 of 18 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Polona Hercog88%

Varvara Lepchenko13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Polona Hercog14 traders

Total Value$32.1K

Total Shares35,331

Combined PnL+$5.8K

Varvara Lepchenko4 traders

Total Value$832.52

Total Shares2,055

Combined PnL-$8.58

Polona Hercog — 78%Varvara Lepchenko — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Polona Hercog. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Varvara Lepchenko) and the top 1000 (8 on Polona Hercog) disagree here.

whalePolona Hercog 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrPolona Hercog 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedVarvara Lepchenko 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Polona Hercog 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Polona Hercogavg 58.5¢	$12.2K	$13.1K	+$955.3	47% 2293-2595 (4888)
RN1	Polona Hercogavg 50¢	$6.0K	$8.1K	+$2.1K	53% 72121-63608 (135729)
65 6512395314597884	Polona Hercogavg 61.3¢	$4.8K	$6.9K	+$2.1K	51% 6120-5875 (11995)
OM omnibus-076daa	Polona Hercogavg 56¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$28.34	50% 24147-24262 (48409)
38 38791873984189	Polona Hercogavg 55.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$410.03	48% 72263-78012 (150275)
0xheavy888CTR	Varvara Lepchenkoavg 43¢	$795.53	$805.62	+$10.08	56% 9043-7128 (16171)
LI Limousin	Polona Hercogavg 86.7¢	$785.35	$792.67	+$7.32	46% 2861-3344 (6205)
EU Eulhunter	Polona Hercogavg 57.9¢	$266.51	$402.5	+$135.99	53% 6836-5985 (12821)
TH thirdt1me	Polona Hercogavg 65.8¢	$336.47	$257.66	+$78.72	58% 237-173 (410)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Varvara Lepchenkoavg 46.3¢	$274.49	$138.04	-$76.14	53% 861-758 (1619)
└ Polona Hercog leg	Polona Hercogavg 68.9¢	$82.57	$104.83	+$22.79
└ Varvara Lepchenko leg	Varvara Lepchenkoavg 46.3¢	$123.11	$33.21	-$98.93
EF efntrick	Polona Hercogavg 56¢	$100.8	$101.7	+$0.9	49% 3741-3962 (7703)
LI LightParadox<$100	Polona Hercogavg 85.6¢	$89.92	$91.88	+$1.96	45% 2751-3326 (6077)
machinelearned<$100	Polona Hercogavg 57.8¢	$57.6	$75	+$17.4	54% 10552-8960 (19512)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Polona Hercogavg 64¢	$75.45	$33.13	+$3.3	60% 4654-3141 (7795)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Varvara Lepchenkoavg 21.8¢	$41.97	$24.1	-$17.87	52% 6205-5726 (11931)
VE Venusian<$100	Polona Hercogavg 82.7¢	$9.31	$9.85	+$0.54	45% 2826-3461 (6287)
MA MadridTime<$100	Polona Hercogavg 77.9¢	$7.25	$8.15	+$0.9	45% 2764-3372 (6136)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Varvara Lepchenkoavg 42¢	$5	$2.18	+$0.08	53% 14841-13046 (27887)
OJ ojgCTR<$100	Varvara Lepchenkoavg 30¢	$1.5	$0.63	-$0.88	51% 4008-3805 (7813)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Polona Hercog

Invested

$12,185.61

Value

$13.1K

PnL

+$955.3

Record

47%

2293-2595 (4888)

RN1

Polona Hercog

Invested

$6,039.47

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

53%

72121-63608 (135729)

6512395314597884

Polona Hercog

Invested

$4,835.77

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

51%

6120-5875 (11995)

omnibus-076daa

Polona Hercog

Invested

$1,066.19

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$28.34

Record

50%

24147-24262 (48409)

38791873984189

Polona Hercog

Invested

$1,054.21

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$410.03

Record

48%

72263-78012 (150275)

0xheavy888CTR

Varvara Lepchenko

Invested

$795.53

Value

$805.62

PnL

+$10.08

Record

56%

9043-7128 (16171)

Limousin

Polona Hercog

Invested

$785.35

Value

$792.67

PnL

+$7.32

Record

46%

2861-3344 (6205)

Eulhunter

Polona Hercog

Invested

$266.51

Value

$402.5

PnL

+$135.99

Record

53%

6836-5985 (12821)

thirdt1me

Polona Hercog

Invested

$336.47

Value

$257.66

PnL

+$78.72

Record

58%

237-173 (410)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Varvara Lepchenko

Invested

$274.49

Value

$138.04

PnL

-$76.14

Record

53%

861-758 (1619)

Both legs:

Polona Hercog$82.5768.9¢+$22.79

Varvara Lepchenko$123.1146.3¢-$98.93

efntrick

Polona Hercog

Invested

$100.8

Value

$101.7

PnL

+$0.9

Record

49%

3741-3962 (7703)

LightParadox<$100

Polona Hercog

Invested

$89.92

Value

$91.88

PnL

+$1.96

Record

45%

2751-3326 (6077)

machinelearned<$100

Polona Hercog

Invested

$57.6

Value

$75

PnL

+$17.4

Record

54%

10552-8960 (19512)

thestingsnake<$100

Polona Hercog

Invested

$75.45

Value

$33.13

PnL

+$3.3

Record

60%

4654-3141 (7795)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Varvara Lepchenko

Invested

$41.97

Value

$24.1

PnL

-$17.87

Record

52%

6205-5726 (11931)

Venusian<$100

Polona Hercog

Invested

$9.31

Value

$9.85

PnL

+$0.54

Record

45%

2826-3461 (6287)

MadridTime<$100

Polona Hercog

Invested

$7.25

Value

$8.15

PnL

+$0.9

Record

45%

2764-3372 (6136)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Varvara Lepchenko

Invested

Value

$2.18

PnL

+$0.08

Record

53%

14841-13046 (27887)

ojgCTR<$100

Varvara Lepchenko

Invested

$1.5

Value

$0.63

PnL

-$0.88

Record

51%

4008-3805 (7813)

Research grade

NeutralPolona Hercog at 88%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Polona Hercog

14 of 18 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Polona Hercog. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Varvara Lepchenko) and the top 1000 (8 on Polona Hercog) disagree here.

whalePolona Hercog 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrPolona Hercog 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedVarvara Lepchenko 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Polona Hercog 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Polona Hercog wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.