Queretaro: Polona Hercog vs Martina Capurro

6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Polona Hercog (100%) · Polona Hercog at 78¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 2

Polona Hercog78¢Martina Capurro22¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Polona Hercog

Consensus Traders

Polona Hercog 100%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.5K

Combined PnL

$99.54

Smart Money Entry

80.2¢ → 77.5¢

-3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralPolona Hercog at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Polona Hercog

6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Polona Hercog78%

Martina Capurro23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Polona Hercog6 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,134

Combined PnL+$99.54

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Polona Hercog. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePolona Hercog 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrPolona Hercog 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedPolona Hercog 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Polona Hercog 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Polona Hercogavg 78¢	$7.7K	$7.4K	-$295.96	54% 55353-47409 (102762)
└ Polona Hercog leg	Polona Hercogavg 78¢	$5.8K	$5.6K	-$222.75
└ Martina Capurro leg	Martina Capurroavg 26¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$73.21
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Polona Hercogavg 77.8¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$9.36	59% 44290-30654 (74944)
└ Polona Hercog leg	Polona Hercogavg 77.8¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$4.54
└ Martina Capurro leg	Martina Capurroavg 22¢	$589.44	$603.34	+$13.9
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Polona Hercogavg 73.5¢	$997.3	$1.1K	+$132.59	52% 13489-12341 (25830)
└ Polona Hercog leg	Polona Hercogavg 73.5¢	$770.98	$875.88	+$104.91
└ Martina Capurro leg	Martina Capurroavg 14.7¢	$226.32	$254.01	+$27.69
GH ghostorder	Polona Hercogavg 78¢	$538.2	$624.45	+$86.25	62% 4235-2611 (6846)
HO HomeRunHazard	Polona Hercogavg 84¢	$204.84	$218.25	+$13.41	54% 16741-14048 (30789)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Polona Hercogavg 80.6¢	$355.59	$148.8	-$37.29	53% 584-515 (1099)
└ Polona Hercog leg	Polona Hercogavg 80.6¢	$111.74	$117.2	-$24.14
└ Martina Capurro leg	Martina Capurroavg 19.8¢	$40.35	$31.59	-$13.16
tradecraftARB<$100	Polona Hercogavg 78.8¢	$132.71	$127.16	-$5.55	52% 5822-5445 (11267)
└ Polona Hercog leg	Polona Hercogavg 78.8¢	$74.9	$80.27	+$5.37
└ Martina Capurro leg	Martina Capurroavg 19.1¢	$57.81	$46.88	-$10.92
HRTrading<$100	Polona Hercogavg 85.9¢	$87.68	$85.44	-$2.24	54% 2609-2230 (4839)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Polona Hercogavg 85.4¢	$35.86	$35.49	-$0.37	58% 18304-13452 (31756)
PA pauleta23<$100	Polona Hercogavg 75.4¢	$30	$32.83	+$2.83	67% 23032-11433 (34465)
EF efntrick<$100	Polona Hercogavg 78¢	$19.72	$19.38	-$0.34	48% 3618-3875 (7493)

RN1ARB<$100

Polona Hercog

Invested

$7,737.09

Value

$7.4K

PnL

-$295.96

Record

54%

55353-47409 (102762)

Both legs:

Polona Hercog$5,791.578¢-$222.75

Martina Capurro$1,945.5926¢-$73.21

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Polona Hercog

Invested

$1,657.86

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$9.36

Record

59%

44290-30654 (74944)

Both legs:

Polona Hercog$1,068.4277.8¢-$4.54

Martina Capurro$589.4422¢+$13.9

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Polona Hercog

Invested

$997.3

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$132.59

Record

52%

13489-12341 (25830)

Both legs:

Polona Hercog$770.9873.5¢+$104.91

Martina Capurro$226.3214.7¢+$27.69

ghostorder

Polona Hercog

Invested

$538.2

Value

$624.45

PnL

+$86.25

Record

62%

4235-2611 (6846)

HomeRunHazard

Polona Hercog

Invested

$204.84

Value

$218.25

PnL

+$13.41

Record

54%

16741-14048 (30789)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Polona Hercog

Invested

$355.59

Value

$148.8

PnL

-$37.29

Record

53%

584-515 (1099)

Both legs:

Polona Hercog$111.7480.6¢-$24.14

Martina Capurro$40.3519.8¢-$13.16

tradecraftARB<$100

Polona Hercog

Invested

$132.71

Value

$127.16

PnL

-$5.55

Record

52%

5822-5445 (11267)

Both legs:

Polona Hercog$74.978.8¢+$5.37

Martina Capurro$57.8119.1¢-$10.92

HRTrading<$100

Polona Hercog

Invested

$87.68

Value

$85.44

PnL

-$2.24

Record

54%

2609-2230 (4839)

BillBenter2026<$100

Polona Hercog

Invested

$35.86

Value

$35.49

PnL

-$0.37

Record

58%

18304-13452 (31756)

pauleta23<$100

Polona Hercog

Invested

$30

Value

$32.83

PnL

+$2.83

Record

67%

23032-11433 (34465)

efntrick<$100

Polona Hercog

Invested

$19.72

Value

$19.38

PnL

-$0.34

Record

48%

3618-3875 (7493)

Research grade

NeutralPolona Hercog at 78%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Polona Hercog

6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Polona Hercog. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePolona Hercog 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrPolona Hercog 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedPolona Hercog 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Polona Hercog 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Polona Hercog wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.