Curitiba: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Antonia Vergara

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Leyre Romero Gormaz (75%) · Leyre Romero Gormaz at 98¢ · $26K held · ends Nov 4

Leyre Romero Gormaz98¢Antonia Vergara2¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Leyre Romero Gormaz

Consensus Traders

Leyre Romero Gormaz 75%

Total Value

$26.4K

Combined PnL

-$27.3

Smart Money Entry

94.6¢ → 98¢

+4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralLeyre Romero Gormaz at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Leyre Romero Gormaz

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Leyre Romero Gormaz98%

Antonia Vergara2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Leyre Romero Gormaz6 traders

Total Value$26.0K

Total Shares26,303

Combined PnL+$142.03

Antonia Vergara2 traders

Total Value$366.38

Total Shares7,810

Combined PnL-$169.33

Leyre Romero Gormaz — 75%Antonia Vergara — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Leyre Romero Gormazavg 94.2¢	$16.4K	$17.2K	+$796.85	59% 44610-31007 (75617)
HO HomeRunHazard	Leyre Romero Gormazavg 96.1¢	$8.3K	$7.6K	-$641.33	54% 16868-14145 (31013)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Leyre Romero Gormazavg 88.7¢	$562.71	$595.94	+$33.23	52% 13563-12405 (25968)
1L 1lovejump	Leyre Romero Gormazavg 93.9¢	$743.48	$411.56	-$39.6	54% 630-547 (1177)
13 13126052CTR	Antonia Vergaraavg 19¢	$475	$300	-$175	51% 86-84 (170)
BI BillBenter2026	Leyre Romero Gormazavg 90.8¢	$123.48	$124.64	+$1.17	58% 18402-13504 (31906)
RN1CTR<$100	Antonia Vergaraavg 1.1¢	$60.71	$66.38	+$5.67	54% 55721-47803 (103524)
HRTrading<$100	Leyre Romero Gormazavg 93.5¢	$22.4	$14.11	-$8.29	53% 3056-2718 (5774)

UpTheBlues

Leyre Romero Gormaz

Invested

$16,430.85

Value

$17.2K

PnL

+$796.85

Record

59%

44610-31007 (75617)

HomeRunHazard

Leyre Romero Gormaz

Invested

$8,287.98

Value

$7.6K

PnL

-$641.33

Record

54%

16868-14145 (31013)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Leyre Romero Gormaz

Invested

$562.71

Value

$595.94

PnL

+$33.23

Record

52%

13563-12405 (25968)

1lovejump

Leyre Romero Gormaz

Invested

$743.48

Value

$411.56

PnL

-$39.6

Record

54%

630-547 (1177)

13126052CTR

Antonia Vergara

Invested

$475

Value

$300

PnL

-$175

Record

51%

86-84 (170)

BillBenter2026

Leyre Romero Gormaz

Invested

$123.48

Value

$124.64

PnL

+$1.17

Record

58%

18402-13504 (31906)

RN1CTR<$100

Antonia Vergara

Invested

$60.71

Value

$66.38

PnL

+$5.67

Record

54%

55721-47803 (103524)

HRTrading<$100

Leyre Romero Gormaz

Invested

$22.4

Value

$14.11

PnL

-$8.29

Record

53%

3056-2718 (5774)

Research grade

NeutralLeyre Romero Gormaz at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Leyre Romero Gormaz

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Leyre Romero Gormaz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.1%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.