Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Leyre Romero Gormaz, while the market favors Julia Grabher (54%). 10 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Curitiba: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Julia Grabher

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Leyre Romero Gormaz (71%) · Leyre Romero Gormaz at 47¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 6

Leyre Romero Gormaz47¢Julia Grabher53¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Leyre Romero Gormaz

Consensus Traders

Leyre Romero Gormaz 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.7K

Combined PnL

$-1.9K

Smart Money Entry

58.6¢ → 46.5¢

-21% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralLeyre Romero Gormaz at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Leyre Romero Gormaz

10 of 14 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Julia Grabher 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Leyre Romero Gormaz47%

Julia Grabher54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Leyre Romero Gormaz10 traders

Total Value$10.2K

Total Shares20,448

Combined PnL$-1.9K

Julia Grabher4 traders

Total Value$464.05

Total Shares1,139

Combined PnL-$8.78

Leyre Romero Gormaz — 71%Julia Grabher — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Leyre Romero Gormazavg 57¢	$8.3K	$6.8K	$-1.5K	54% 56317-48476 (104793)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Leyre Romero Gormazavg 66.3¢	$2.5K	$2.1K	-$372.99	59% 45379-31733 (77112)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Leyre Romero Gormazavg 71.5¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$8.38	52% 13724-12524 (26248)
└ Leyre Romero Gormaz leg	Leyre Romero Gormazavg 71.5¢	$715	$635	-$80
└ Julia Grabher leg	Julia Grabheravg 29.8¢	$317.2	$388.82	+$71.62
tradecraftCTR	Leyre Romero Gormazavg 51.4¢	$477.83	$502.04	+$13.96	51% 5975-5667 (11642)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Leyre Romero Gormazavg 55.1¢	$603.17	$432.54	+$70.72	60% 4034-2725 (6759)
38 38791873984189	Julia Grabheravg 40.9¢	$273.16	$290.63	+$17.47	46% 7970-9410 (17380)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Leyre Romero Gormazavg 68.7¢	$261.2	$214.7	-$46.5	51% 1399-1345 (2744)
poshposh	Julia Grabheravg 44.5¢	$140.49	$118.38	-$22.11	59% 9929-6898 (16827)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Leyre Romero Gormazavg 46¢	$53.47	$51.41	+$1.78	58% 41497-30120 (71617)
PA pauleta23<$100	Julia Grabheravg 29.6¢	$25.78	$35.23	+$9.45	67% 23269-11675 (34944)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Leyre Romero Gormazavg 47¢	$25.85	$26.13	+$0.27	55% 7053-5658 (12711)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Julia Grabheravg 32.9¢	$33.4	$19.8	-$13.6	38% 3197-5208 (8405)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100	Leyre Romero Gormazavg 65¢	$9.8	$10	+$0.2	86% 5086-860 (5946)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Leyre Romero Gormazavg 46¢	$6.17	$6.37	+$0.2	62% 13684-8536 (22220)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Leyre Romero Gormazavg 74¢	$3.74	$4.07	+$0.33	49% 18987-19398 (38385)

RN1CTR

Leyre Romero Gormaz

Invested

$8,343.43

Value

$6.8K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

54%

56317-48476 (104793)

UpTheBluesCTR

Leyre Romero Gormaz

Invested

$2,516.5

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$372.99

Record

59%

45379-31733 (77112)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Leyre Romero Gormaz

Invested

$1,032.2

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$8.38

Record

52%

13724-12524 (26248)

Both legs:

Leyre Romero Gormaz$71571.5¢-$80

Julia Grabher$317.229.8¢+$71.62

tradecraftCTR

Leyre Romero Gormaz

Invested

$477.83

Value

$502.04

PnL

+$13.96

Record

51%

5975-5667 (11642)

thestingsnakeCTR

Leyre Romero Gormaz

Invested

$603.17

Value

$432.54

PnL

+$70.72

Record

60%

4034-2725 (6759)

38791873984189

Julia Grabher

Invested

$273.16

Value

$290.63

PnL

+$17.47

Record

46%

7970-9410 (17380)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Leyre Romero Gormaz

Invested

$261.2

Value

$214.7

PnL

-$46.5

Record

51%

1399-1345 (2744)

poshposh

Julia Grabher

Invested

$140.49

Value

$118.38

PnL

-$22.11

Record

59%

9929-6898 (16827)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Leyre Romero Gormaz

Invested

$53.47

Value

$51.41

PnL

+$1.78

Record

58%

41497-30120 (71617)

pauleta23<$100

Julia Grabher

Invested

$25.78

Value

$35.23

PnL

+$9.45

Record

67%

23269-11675 (34944)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Leyre Romero Gormaz

Invested

$25.85

Value

$26.13

PnL

+$0.27

Record

55%

7053-5658 (12711)

topdogbigboi<$100

Julia Grabher

Invested

$33.4

Value

$19.8

PnL

-$13.6

Record

38%

3197-5208 (8405)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100

Leyre Romero Gormaz

Invested

$9.8

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.2

Record

86%

5086-860 (5946)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Leyre Romero Gormaz

Invested

$6.17

Value

$6.37

PnL

+$0.2

Record

62%

13684-8536 (22220)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Leyre Romero Gormaz

Invested

$3.74

Value

$4.07

PnL

+$0.33

Record

49%

18987-19398 (38385)

Research grade

NeutralLeyre Romero Gormaz at 47%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Leyre Romero Gormaz

10 of 14 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Julia Grabher 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Leyre Romero Gormaz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.