Curitiba: Justina Gonzalez vs Solana Sierra
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Solana Sierra (56%) · Solana Sierra at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Solana Sierra
9
Solana Sierra 56%
$2.0K
-$31.46
90.3¢ → 100¢
+11% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralSolana Sierra at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Solana Sierraavg 93.3¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$40.11 | 59% 44263-30624 (74887) |
1L 1lovejump | Solana Sierraavg 83.9¢ | $479.96 | $371.89 | -$11.07 | 53% 580-515 (1095) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Solana Sierraavg 86¢ | $264.32 | $235.26 | -$29.06 | 49% 18399-18822 (37221) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR | Justina Gonzalezavg 15.9¢ | $129.36 | $190.67 | +$61.31 | 52% 13483-12339 (25822) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Justina Gonzalezavg 9¢ | $46.04 | $18.13 | -$27.91 | 54% 16740-14044 (30784) |
EF efntrick<$100 | Solana Sierraavg 84¢ | $13.2 | $15.17 | +$1.98 | 48% 3615-3873 (7488) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Solana Sierraavg 97.6¢ | $9.69 | $9.69 | +$0 | 67% 23026-11429 (34455) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Justina Gonzalezavg 10.5¢ | $69.37 | $2.98 | -$66.39 | 54% 55325-47376 (102701) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100 | Justina Gonzalezavg 17¢ | $0.85 | $0.43 | -$0.42 | 59% 29924-20650 (50574) |
Invested
$1,164.55
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$40.11
Record
59%
44263-30624 (74887)
Invested
$479.96
Value
$371.89
PnL
-$11.07
Record
53%
580-515 (1095)
Invested
$264.32
Value
$235.26
PnL
-$29.06
Record
49%
18399-18822 (37221)
Invested
$129.36
Value
$190.67
PnL
+$61.31
Record
52%
13483-12339 (25822)
Invested
$46.04
Value
$18.13
PnL
-$27.91
Record
54%
16740-14044 (30784)
Invested
$13.2
Value
$15.17
PnL
+$1.98
Record
48%
3615-3873 (7488)
Invested
$9.69
Value
$9.69
PnL
+$0
Record
67%
23026-11429 (34455)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$69.37
Value
$2.98
PnL
-$66.39
Record
54%
55325-47376 (102701)
Invested
$0.85
Value
$0.43
PnL
-$0.42
Record
59%
29924-20650 (50574)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
UpTheBlues
Solana Sierra — $1.2K
1lovejump
Solana Sierra — $371.89
omnibus-076daa
Solana Sierra — $235.26
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
CTRJustina Gonzalez — $190.67
HomeRunHazard
CTRJustina Gonzalez — $18.13
efntrick
Solana Sierra — $15.17
pauleta23
Solana Sierra — $9.69
RN1
CTRJustina Gonzalez — $2.98
0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846
CTRJustina Gonzalez — $0.43