Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Linda Noskova, while the market favors Coco Gauff (61%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
WTA Finals, Group A: Coco Gauff vs Linda Noskova
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Linda Noskova (75%) · Linda Noskova at 40¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 17
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Research candidate
Linda Noskova
4
Linda Noskova 75%
1 arb excluded
$1.2K
$6.21
39.2¢ → 39.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
Research candidateLinda Noskova at 40%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Coco Gauff 61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GC GC-PCTR | Linda Noskovaavg 39¢ | $390 | $395 | +$5 | 16% 64-346 (410) |
 VeryLucky888ARB<$100 | Linda Noskovaavg 39¢ | $477.94 | $301.3 | +$6.36 | 48% 214-230 (444) |
| └ Linda Noskova leg | Linda Noskovaavg 39¢ | $195 | $197.5 | +$2.5 | |
| └ Coco Gauff leg | Coco Gauffavg 60¢ | $102.94 | $103.8 | +$3.86 | |
NM NM-PCTR | Linda Noskovaavg 39¢ | $242.63 | $245.74 | +$3.11 | 60% 3439-2335 (5774) |
 nigiri99CTR | Linda Noskovaavg 40¢ | $180.8 | $178.54 | -$2.26 | 52% 122-112 (234) |
DA darkumbreon88<$100 | Coco Gauffavg 60¢ | $43.64 | $44 | +$0.36 | 61% 891-567 (1458) |
Invested
$390
Value
$395
PnL
+$5
Record
16%
64-346 (410)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100Invested
$477.94
Value
$301.3
PnL
+$6.36
Record
48%
214-230 (444)
Both legs:
Invested
$242.63
Value
$245.74
PnL
+$3.11
Record
60%
3439-2335 (5774)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$180.8
Value
$178.54
PnL
-$2.26
Record
52%
122-112 (234)
Invested
$43.64
Value
$44
PnL
+$0.36
Record
61%
891-567 (1458)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.