Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Jazmin Ortenzi, while the market favors Andrea Lazaro Garcia (54%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Sopo: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Jazmin Ortenzi
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Jazmin Ortenzi (60%) · Jazmin Ortenzi at 47¢ · $527 held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Jazmin Ortenzi
5
Jazmin Ortenzi 60%
$527.34
$2.13
45.9¢ → 46.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralJazmin Ortenzi at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Andrea Lazaro Garcia 54%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Jazmin Ortenzi. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MadridTimeCTR | Jazmin Ortenziavg 46¢ | $220.67 | $220.67 | +$0 | 31% 376-842 (1218) |
LI LimousinCTR | Jazmin Ortenziavg 45.6¢ | $165.32 | $166.64 | +$1.32 | 30% 373-863 (1236) |
 VeryLucky888 | Andrea Lazaro Garciaavg 53.1¢ | $123.66 | $124.62 | +$0.96 | 52% 445-417 (862) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Jazmin Ortenziavg 46¢ | $12.77 | $12.77 | +$0 | 30% 372-861 (1233) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Andrea Lazaro Garciaavg 56¢ | $2.8 | $2.65 | -$0.15 | 32% 282-611 (893) |
Invested
$220.67
Value
$220.67
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
376-842 (1218)
Invested
$165.32
Value
$166.64
PnL
+$1.32
Record
30%
373-863 (1236)
VeryLucky888Invested
$123.66
Value
$124.62
PnL
+$0.96
Record
52%
445-417 (862)
Invested
$12.77
Value
$12.77
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
372-861 (1233)
Invested
$2.8
Value
$2.65
PnL
-$0.15
Record
32%
282-611 (893)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.