Queretaro: Fiona Ferro vs Adriana Reami
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Fiona Ferro (89%) · Fiona Ferro at 99¢ · $28K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Fiona Ferro
9
Fiona Ferro 89%
$28.2K
$345.74
97.2¢ → 99¢
+2% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralFiona Ferro at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Fiona Ferroavg 97.4¢ | $24.7K | $25.1K | +$328.62 | 59% 44789-31177 (75966) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Fiona Ferroavg 95.5¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$21.64 | 54% 16884-14152 (31036) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 | Fiona Ferroavg 93.9¢ | $709.54 | $714.42 | +$4.88 | 52% 13597-12434 (26031) |
 VeryLucky888 | Fiona Ferroavg 95.4¢ | $572.48 | $584.69 | +$12.21 | 58% 40917-29601 (70518) |
1L 1lovejump | Fiona Ferroavg 94.9¢ | $396.97 | $348.11 | -$31.32 | 53% 641-564 (1205) |
 HRTrading | Fiona Ferroavg 96.8¢ | $146.41 | $149.28 | +$2.87 | 53% 3243-2909 (6152) |
TH thestingsnake<$100 | Fiona Ferroavg 93¢ | $93 | $97.45 | +$4.45 | 60% 3982-2681 (6663) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Adriana Reamiavg 4.2¢ | $88.08 | $90.48 | +$2.4 | 54% 55844-47942 (103786) |
BI BillBenter2026<$100 | Fiona Ferroavg 95.9¢ | $7.67 | $7.66 | -$0.01 | 58% 18441-13525 (31966) |
Invested
$24,720.15
Value
$25.1K
PnL
+$328.62
Record
59%
44789-31177 (75966)
Invested
$1,101.06
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$21.64
Record
54%
16884-14152 (31036)
Invested
$709.54
Value
$714.42
PnL
+$4.88
Record
52%
13597-12434 (26031)
VeryLucky888Invested
$572.48
Value
$584.69
PnL
+$12.21
Record
58%
40917-29601 (70518)
Invested
$396.97
Value
$348.11
PnL
-$31.32
Record
53%
641-564 (1205)
HRTradingInvested
$146.41
Value
$149.28
PnL
+$2.87
Record
53%
3243-2909 (6152)
Invested
$93
Value
$97.45
PnL
+$4.45
Record
60%
3982-2681 (6663)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$88.08
Value
$90.48
PnL
+$2.4
Record
54%
55844-47942 (103786)
Invested
$7.67
Value
$7.66
PnL
-$0.01
Record
58%
18441-13525 (31966)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
UpTheBlues
Fiona Ferro — $25.1K
HomeRunHazard
Fiona Ferro — $1.1K
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
Fiona Ferro — $714.42
VeryLucky888
Fiona Ferro — $584.69
1lovejump
Fiona Ferro — $348.11
HRTrading
Fiona Ferro — $149.28
thestingsnake
Fiona Ferro — $97.45
RN1
CTRAdriana Reami — $90.48
BillBenter2026
Fiona Ferro — $7.66