Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Elizabeth Mandlik — but Fiona Ferro won instead.
Queretaro: Fiona Ferro vs Elizabeth Mandlik
Resolved Fiona Ferro. 44% of the top Polymarket traders held Elizabeth Mandlik. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
16
Elizabeth Mandlik 45%
5 arb excluded
$37.8K
$-2.3K
Smart Money Signal
7 of 16 top traders (44%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1ARB<$100 | Fiona Ferroavg 58.4¢ | $29.9K | $26.5K | +$7.6K | 54% 56479-48663 (105142) |
| └ Fiona Ferro leg | Fiona Ferroavg 58.4¢ | $15.5K | $26.5K | +$11.0K | |
| └ Elizabeth Mandlik leg | Elizabeth Mandlikavg 32.6¢ | $3.4K | — | $-3.4K | |
 ZaiZoiBeleARB<$100 | Elizabeth Mandlikavg 42.2¢ | $14.8K | $6.4K | $-6.5K | 80% 5042-1243 (6285) |
| └ Elizabeth Mandlik leg | Elizabeth Mandlikavg 42.2¢ | $6.1K | — | $-6.1K | |
| └ Fiona Ferro leg | Fiona Ferroavg 94.2¢ | $6.0K | $6.4K | -$376.19 | |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100 | Fiona Ferroavg 82.6¢ | $2.5K | $2.7K | +$189.7 | 52% 13757-12562 (26319) |
| └ Elizabeth Mandlik leg | Elizabeth Mandlikavg 11.1¢ | $277.24 | — | -$277.24 | |
| └ Fiona Ferro leg | Fiona Ferroavg 82.6¢ | $2.2K | $2.7K | +$466.94 | |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Elizabeth Mandlikavg 19.6¢ | $836.34 | — | -$836.34 | 59% 45621-31960 (77581) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Elizabeth Mandlikavg 45.2¢ | $1.6K | — | $-1.6K | 50% 19116-19502 (38618) |
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100 | Fiona Ferroavg 87.7¢ | $2.4K | $851.68 | -$166.06 | 53% 662-581 (1243) |
| └ Elizabeth Mandlik leg | Elizabeth Mandlikavg 18.7¢ | $152.89 | — | -$163.56 | |
| └ Fiona Ferro leg | Fiona Ferroavg 87.7¢ | $746.61 | $851.68 | -$2.5 | |
 HRTrading | Fiona Ferroavg 88¢ | $357.91 | $400.86 | +$42.95 | 52% 4302-3911 (8213) |
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100 | Fiona Ferroavg 85.4¢ | $289.91 | $219 | -$70.91 | 58% 18618-13687 (32305) |
| └ Elizabeth Mandlik leg | Elizabeth Mandlikavg 52.5¢ | $102.95 | — | -$102.95 | |
| └ Fiona Ferro leg | Fiona Ferroavg 85.4¢ | $186.96 | $219 | +$32.04 | |
SC SchruteBucks | Fiona Ferroavg 77.4¢ | $358.92 | $439.96 | +$97.44 | 56% 1843-1438 (3281) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Elizabeth Mandlikavg 7.5¢ | $23.92 | — | -$23.92 | 59% 10084-7066 (17150) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Elizabeth Mandlikavg 10¢ | $27.91 | — | -$27.91 | 49% 7817-8099 (15916) |
 latvian.demon | Fiona Ferroavg 51.6¢ | $123.32 | $239 | +$115.68 | 54% 687-583 (1270) |
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100 | Elizabeth Mandlikavg 52.9¢ | $31.8 | — | -$31.8 | 50% 3813-3770 (7583) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Fiona Ferroavg 67.7¢ | $30 | $44.35 | +$14.35 | 67% 23315-11716 (35031) |
 TRCM<$100 | Fiona Ferroavg 72.9¢ | $10.94 | $15 | +$4.07 | 55% 3947-3180 (7127) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Fiona Ferroavg 76¢ | $3.96 | $5.21 | +$1.25 | 56% 7097-5686 (12783) |
LA lavendergooms<$100 | Fiona Ferroavg 73.6¢ | $51.48 | $0.02 | -$0.34 | 52% 2616-2369 (4985) |
 88M | Fiona Ferroavg 64.6¢ | $981.41 | $0.01 | -$15.67 | 42% 779-1077 (1856) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Fiona Ferroavg 90¢ | — | — | +$0 | 51% 5995-5689 (11684) |
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100 | Elizabeth Mandlikavg 45.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 60% 4056-2734 (6790) |
FL flatbarrelCTR<$100 | Elizabeth Mandlikavg 3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 58% 2749-1972 (4721) |
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$29,884.52
Value
$26.5K
PnL
+$7.6K
Record
54%
56479-48663 (105142)
Both legs:
ZaiZoiBeleARB<$100Invested
$14,787.93
Value
$6.4K
PnL
$-6.5K
Record
80%
5042-1243 (6285)
Both legs:
Invested
$2,487.67
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$189.7
Record
52%
13757-12562 (26319)
Both legs:
Invested
$836.34
Value
—
PnL
-$836.34
Record
59%
45621-31960 (77581)
Invested
$1,612.61
Value
—
PnL
$-1.6K
Record
50%
19116-19502 (38618)
Invested
$2,355.46
Value
$851.68
PnL
-$166.06
Record
53%
662-581 (1243)
Both legs:
HRTradingInvested
$357.91
Value
$400.86
PnL
+$42.95
Record
52%
4302-3911 (8213)
Invested
$289.91
Value
$219
PnL
-$70.91
Record
58%
18618-13687 (32305)
Both legs:
Invested
$358.92
Value
$439.96
PnL
+$97.44
Record
56%
1843-1438 (3281)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$23.92
Value
—
PnL
-$23.92
Record
59%
10084-7066 (17150)
Invested
$27.91
Value
—
PnL
-$27.91
Record
49%
7817-8099 (15916)
latvian.demonInvested
$123.32
Value
$239
PnL
+$115.68
Record
54%
687-583 (1270)
Invested
$31.8
Value
—
PnL
-$31.8
Record
50%
3813-3770 (7583)
Invested
$30
Value
$44.35
PnL
+$14.35
Record
67%
23315-11716 (35031)
TRCM<$100Invested
$10.94
Value
$15
PnL
+$4.07
Record
55%
3947-3180 (7127)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$3.96
Value
$5.21
PnL
+$1.25
Record
56%
7097-5686 (12783)
Invested
$51.48
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$0.34
Record
52%
2616-2369 (4985)
88MInvested
$981.41
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$15.67
Record
42%
779-1077 (1856)
tradecraft<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
5995-5689 (11684)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
60%
4056-2734 (6790)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
2749-1972 (4721)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
RN1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ZaiZoiBele
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
UpTheBlues
CTRElizabeth Mandlik — $0
omnibus-076daa
CTRElizabeth Mandlik — $0
1lovejump
ARBArbitrage — excluded
HRTrading
Fiona Ferro — $400.86
BillBenter2026
ARBArbitrage — excluded
SchruteBucks
Fiona Ferro — $439.96
poshposh
CTRElizabeth Mandlik — $0