Queretaro: Fiona Ferro vs Sofia Johnson

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Fiona Ferro (83%) · Fiona Ferro at 81¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 2

Fiona Ferro81¢Sofia Johnson19¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Fiona Ferro

Consensus Traders

Fiona Ferro 83%

Total Value

$6.0K

Combined PnL

$158.53

Smart Money Entry

76.1¢ → 80.5¢

+6% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralFiona Ferro at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Fiona Ferro

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Fiona Ferro81%

Sofia Johnson20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Fiona Ferro10 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares5,934

Combined PnL+$162.56

Sofia Johnson2 traders

Total Value$235.37

Total Shares1,433

Combined PnL-$4.04

Fiona Ferro — 83%Sofia Johnson — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Fiona Ferroavg 75.5¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$0.76	52% 13489-12341 (25830)
UP UpTheBlues	Fiona Ferroavg 78¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$56.29	59% 44290-30654 (74944)
RN1	Fiona Ferroavg 73¢	$986.67	$1.1K	+$142.54	54% 55353-47409 (102762)
1L 1lovejump	Fiona Ferroavg 73.6¢	$889.74	$641.64	-$46.35	53% 584-515 (1099)
TH thestingsnake	Fiona Ferroavg 83.5¢	$468.26	$467.72	+$15.87	60% 3908-2649 (6557)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Sofia Johnsonavg 15.3¢	$187.9	$202.56	+$14.66	54% 16741-14048 (30789)
tradecraft<$100	Fiona Ferroavg 81¢	$72.9	$74.7	+$1.8	52% 5822-5445 (11267)
EF efntrick<$100	Fiona Ferroavg 77.5¢	$42.98	$39.98	-$3	48% 3618-3875 (7493)
PA pauleta23<$100	Fiona Ferroavg 74.5¢	$39.52	$35.88	-$3.64	67% 23032-11433 (34465)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Sofia Johnsonavg 21.8¢	$51.51	$32.81	-$18.7	54% 2609-2230 (4839)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Fiona Ferroavg 88¢	$24.64	$24.22	-$0.42	58% 18304-13452 (31756)
0xheavy888<$100	Fiona Ferroavg 81¢	$9.59	$9.83	+$0.24	56% 6844-5479 (12323)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Fiona Ferro

Invested

$2,039.12

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$0.76

Record

52%

13489-12341 (25830)

UpTheBlues

Fiona Ferro

Invested

$1,223.04

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$56.29

Record

59%

44290-30654 (74944)

RN1

Fiona Ferro

Invested

$986.67

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$142.54

Record

54%

55353-47409 (102762)

1lovejump

Fiona Ferro

Invested

$889.74

Value

$641.64

PnL

-$46.35

Record

53%

584-515 (1099)

thestingsnake

Fiona Ferro

Invested

$468.26

Value

$467.72

PnL

+$15.87

Record

60%

3908-2649 (6557)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Sofia Johnson

Invested

$187.9

Value

$202.56

PnL

+$14.66

Record

54%

16741-14048 (30789)

tradecraft<$100

Fiona Ferro

Invested

$72.9

Value

$74.7

PnL

+$1.8

Record

52%

5822-5445 (11267)

efntrick<$100

Fiona Ferro

Invested

$42.98

Value

$39.98

PnL

-$3

Record

48%

3618-3875 (7493)

pauleta23<$100

Fiona Ferro

Invested

$39.52

Value

$35.88

PnL

-$3.64

Record

67%

23032-11433 (34465)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Sofia Johnson

Invested

$51.51

Value

$32.81

PnL

-$18.7

Record

54%

2609-2230 (4839)

BillBenter2026<$100

Fiona Ferro

Invested

$24.64

Value

$24.22

PnL

-$0.42

Record

58%

18304-13452 (31756)

0xheavy888<$100

Fiona Ferro

Invested

$9.59

Value

$9.83

PnL

+$0.24

Record

56%

6844-5479 (12323)

Research grade

NeutralFiona Ferro at 81%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Fiona Ferro

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Fiona Ferro wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.