Pan Pacific Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Diana Shnaider

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Diana Shnaider (25%) · Diana Shnaider at 61¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 8

Leylah Fernandez40¢Diana Shnaider60¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Diana Shnaider

Consensus Traders

Diana Shnaider 25%

Total Value

$14.7K

Combined PnL

-$47.63

Smart Money Entry

60¢ → 60.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralDiana Shnaider at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Diana Shnaider

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Leylah Fernandez40%

Diana Shnaider61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Diana Shnaider2 traders

Total Value$10.1K

Total Shares16,938

Combined PnL-$74.87

Leylah Fernandez6 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares11,432

Combined PnL+$27.24

Diana Shnaider — 25%Leylah Fernandez — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Diana Shnaider. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLeylah Fernandez 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpLeylah Fernandez 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrDiana Shnaider 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedLeylah Fernandez 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Leylah Fernandez 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU Luzzzer	Diana Shnaideravg 60¢	$9.8K	$9.7K	-$81.42	46% 118-139 (257)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Leylah Fernandezavg 40¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$25.61	73% 6703-2419 (9122)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Leylah Fernandezavg 40¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$15	53% 5644-4980 (10624)
VeryLucky888CTR	Leylah Fernandezavg 40¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$15	58% 42088-30563 (72651)
HY hydra1248	Diana Shnaideravg 59¢	$386.23	$392.78	+$6.55	— 6-2 (8)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Leylah Fernandezavg 40¢	$81.6	$82.62	+$1.02	55% 7155-5744 (12899)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Leylah Fernandezavg 40¢	$38.8	$39.29	+$0.49	58% 28818-21252 (50070)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Leylah Fernandezavg 40¢	$6.9	$7.03	+$0.13	48% 2435-2653 (5088)

Luzzzer

Diana Shnaider

Invested

$9,769.81

Value

$9.7K

PnL

-$81.42

Record

46%

118-139 (257)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Leylah Fernandez

Invested

$2,048.4

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$25.61

Record

73%

6703-2419 (9122)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Leylah Fernandez

Invested

$1,200

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$15

Record

53%

5644-4980 (10624)

VeryLucky888CTR

Leylah Fernandez

Invested

$1,200

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$15

Record

58%

42088-30563 (72651)

hydra1248

Diana Shnaider

Invested

$386.23

Value

$392.78

PnL

+$6.55

Record

—

6-2 (8)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Leylah Fernandez

Invested

$81.6

Value

$82.62

PnL

+$1.02

Record

55%

7155-5744 (12899)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Leylah Fernandez

Invested

$38.8

Value

$39.29

PnL

+$0.49

Record

58%

28818-21252 (50070)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Leylah Fernandez

Invested

$6.9

Value

$7.03

PnL

+$0.13

Record

48%

2435-2653 (5088)

Research grade

NeutralDiana Shnaider at 61%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Diana Shnaider

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Diana Shnaider. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLeylah Fernandez 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpLeylah Fernandez 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrDiana Shnaider 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedLeylah Fernandez 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Leylah Fernandez 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Diana Shnaider wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.