Pan Pacific Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Kamilla Rakhimova

14 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold Leylah Fernandez (56%) · Leylah Fernandez at 76¢ · $94K held · ends Nov 7

Leylah Fernandez76¢Kamilla Rakhimova24¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Leylah Fernandez

Consensus Traders

Leylah Fernandez 56%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$93.8K

Combined PnL

$-4.9K

Smart Money Entry

73.1¢ → 75.5¢

+3% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralLeylah Fernandez at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Leylah Fernandez

14 of 25 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Leylah Fernandez76%

Kamilla Rakhimova25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Leylah Fernandez14 traders

Total Value$80.8K

Total Shares95,747

Combined PnL+$3.1K

Kamilla Rakhimova11 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares25,233

Combined PnL$-7.9K

Leylah Fernandez — 56%Kamilla Rakhimova — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Leylah Fernandez. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Kamilla Rakhimova) and the top 1000 (13 on Leylah Fernandez) disagree here.

whaleKamilla Rakhimova 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpKamilla Rakhimova 67% · 6

Diverging

ctrLeylah Fernandez 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedKamilla Rakhimova 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Leylah Fernandez 54% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Leylah Fernandezavg 70.9¢	$25.7K	$27.6K	+$1.9K	54% 56479-48663 (105142)
UP UpTheBlues	Leylah Fernandezavg 72.8¢	$25.3K	$27.1K	+$1.7K	59% 45621-31960 (77581)
KK kkookkoo	Leylah Fernandezavg 75¢	$12.8K	$12.5K	-$336.35	51% 600-575 (1175)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Leylah Fernandezavg 72.3¢	$5.1K	$5.3K	+$254.54	52% 13757-12562 (26319)
└ Leylah Fernandez leg	Leylah Fernandezavg 72.3¢	$3.8K	$4.1K	+$324.23
└ Kamilla Rakhimova leg	Kamilla Rakhimovaavg 22.8¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$69.69
OM omnibus-076daa	Leylah Fernandezavg 77¢	$4.3K	$4.0K	-$221	50% 19116-19502 (38618)
LH lhetorar	Leylah Fernandezavg 75¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$80	71% 145-58 (203)
tradecraft	Leylah Fernandezavg 72¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$40	51% 5995-5689 (11684)
TH thestingsnake	Leylah Fernandezavg 77.2¢	$2.5K	$2.2K	-$18.15	60% 4056-2734 (6790)
ZaiZoiBeleCTR	Kamilla Rakhimovaavg 32.8¢	$2.2K	$1.8K	-$379.83	80% 5042-1243 (6285)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Leylah Fernandezavg 75.3¢	$3.9K	$1.7K	-$10.87	53% 662-581 (1243)
└ Leylah Fernandez leg	Leylah Fernandezavg 75.3¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$57.01
└ Kamilla Rakhimova leg	Kamilla Rakhimovaavg 27¢	$419.64	$380.58	-$67.88
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Kamilla Rakhimovaavg 25¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$95.88	74% 6647-2370 (9017)
C6 C63AMGCTR	Kamilla Rakhimovaavg 26¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$45	73% 868-328 (1196)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Leylah Fernandezavg 75.5¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0.65	51% 1429-1372 (2801)
KK KkunnCTR	Kamilla Rakhimovaavg 31¢	$12.4K	$514.78	$-7.6K	44% 231-293 (524)
VeryLucky888CTR	Kamilla Rakhimovaavg 25¢	$394.78	$407.71	+$29.77	58% 41739-30322 (72061)
0X 0xE71359d50Ea42c73bFf065ec47F418506A7aC9a0-1771230981470CTR	Kamilla Rakhimovaavg 33.8¢	$507	$405	-$102	72% 355-140 (495)
HRTrading	Leylah Fernandezavg 70.7¢	$260.31	$304.72	+$44.41	52% 4302-3911 (8213)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Kamilla Rakhimovaavg 16¢	$213.42	$206.75	-$6.67	48% 805-879 (1684)
0xheavy888	Leylah Fernandezavg 73¢	$119.73	$119.73	+$4.1	56% 7097-5686 (12783)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR	Kamilla Rakhimovaavg 24¢	$96.18	$108.2	+$12.02	50% 3813-3770 (7583)
US User7429<$100	Leylah Fernandezavg 82¢	$41	$42.25	+$1.25	55% 8268-6673 (14941)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Leylah Fernandezavg 88¢	$24.64	$24.5	-$0.14	58% 18618-13687 (32305)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Kamilla Rakhimovaavg 28.5¢	$13.51	$12.82	-$0.69	49% 7817-8099 (15916)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Kamilla Rakhimovaavg 26¢	$10.4	$10.8	+$0.4	58% 28550-21073 (49623)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Kamilla Rakhimovaavg 26¢	$10	$10.38	+$0.38	67% 23315-11716 (35031)

RN1

Leylah Fernandez

Invested

$25,702.8

Value

$27.6K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

54%

56479-48663 (105142)

UpTheBlues

Leylah Fernandez

Invested

$25,331.95

Value

$27.1K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

59%

45621-31960 (77581)

kkookkoo

Leylah Fernandez

Invested

$12,800

Value

$12.5K

PnL

-$336.35

Record

51%

600-575 (1175)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Leylah Fernandez

Invested

$5,055.43

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$254.54

Record

52%

13757-12562 (26319)

Both legs:

Leylah Fernandez$3,805.9872.3¢+$324.23

Kamilla Rakhimova$1,249.4522.8¢-$69.69

omnibus-076daa

Leylah Fernandez

Invested

$4,254.19

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$221

Record

50%

19116-19502 (38618)

lhetorar

Leylah Fernandez

Invested

$3,000

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$80

Record

71%

145-58 (203)

tradecraft

Leylah Fernandez

Invested

$2,880

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$40

Record

51%

5995-5689 (11684)

thestingsnake

Leylah Fernandez

Invested

$2,543.04

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$18.15

Record

60%

4056-2734 (6790)

ZaiZoiBeleCTR

Kamilla Rakhimova

Invested

$2,162.5

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$379.83

Record

80%

5042-1243 (6285)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Leylah Fernandez

Invested

$3,901.69

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$10.87

Record

53%

662-581 (1243)

Both legs:

Leylah Fernandez$1,341.1475.3¢+$57.01

Kamilla Rakhimova$419.6427¢-$67.88

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Kamilla Rakhimova

Invested

$1,198.5

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$95.88

Record

74%

6647-2370 (9017)

C63AMGCTR

Kamilla Rakhimova

Invested

$1,170

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$45

Record

73%

868-328 (1196)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Leylah Fernandez

Invested

$1,079

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0.65

Record

51%

1429-1372 (2801)

KkunnCTR

Kamilla Rakhimova

Invested

$12,399.99

Value

$514.78

PnL

$-7.6K

Record

44%

231-293 (524)

VeryLucky888CTR

Kamilla Rakhimova

Invested

$394.78

Value

$407.71

PnL

+$29.77

Record

58%

41739-30322 (72061)

0xE71359d50Ea42c73bFf065ec47F418506A7aC9a0-1771230981470CTR

Kamilla Rakhimova

Invested

$507

Value

$405

PnL

-$102

Record

72%

355-140 (495)

HRTrading

Leylah Fernandez

Invested

$260.31

Value

$304.72

PnL

+$44.41

Record

52%

4302-3911 (8213)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Kamilla Rakhimova

Invested

$213.42

Value

$206.75

PnL

-$6.67

Record

48%

805-879 (1684)

0xheavy888

Leylah Fernandez

Invested

$119.73

Value

$119.73

PnL

+$4.1

Record

56%

7097-5686 (12783)

NatoAlfistaCTR

Kamilla Rakhimova

Invested

$96.18

Value

$108.2

PnL

+$12.02

Record

50%

3813-3770 (7583)

User7429<$100

Leylah Fernandez

Invested

$41

Value

$42.25

PnL

+$1.25

Record

55%

8268-6673 (14941)

BillBenter2026<$100

Leylah Fernandez

Invested

$24.64

Value

$24.5

PnL

-$0.14

Record

58%

18618-13687 (32305)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Kamilla Rakhimova

Invested

$13.51

Value

$12.82

PnL

-$0.69

Record

49%

7817-8099 (15916)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Kamilla Rakhimova

Invested

$10.4

Value

$10.8

PnL

+$0.4

Record

58%

28550-21073 (49623)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Kamilla Rakhimova

Invested

$10

Value

$10.38

PnL

+$0.38

Record

67%

23315-11716 (35031)

Research grade

NeutralLeylah Fernandez at 76%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Leylah Fernandez

14 of 25 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Leylah Fernandez. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Kamilla Rakhimova) and the top 1000 (13 on Leylah Fernandez) disagree here.

whaleKamilla Rakhimova 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpKamilla Rakhimova 67% · 6

Diverging

ctrLeylah Fernandez 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedKamilla Rakhimova 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Leylah Fernandez 54% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Leylah Fernandez wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.