Chennai Open: Aliona Falei vs Magda Linette

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Magda Linette (50%) · Magda Linette at 65¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 9

Aliona Falei35¢Magda Linette65¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Magda Linette

Consensus Traders

Magda Linette 50%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$24.32

Smart Money Entry

65¢ → 65¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralMagda Linette at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Magda Linette

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Aliona Falei35%

Magda Linette65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Magda Linette4 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares3,890

Combined PnL+$24.43

Aliona Falei4 traders

Total Value$481.66

Total Shares1,394

Combined PnL-$0.11

Magda Linette — 50%Aliona Falei — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Magda Linette. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAliona Falei 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpMagda Linette 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMagda Linette 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedMagda Linette 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Magda Linette 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BA BaltazarGombka	Magda Linetteavg 65¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$16.54	66% 285-144 (429)
38 38791873984189	Magda Linette	$310.55	$310.55	+$7.71	47% 12988-14555 (27543)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Aliona Faleiavg 34¢	$245.47	$249.08	+$3.61	46% 9226-10935 (20161)
NO NotJumpCTR	Aliona Faleiavg 35¢	$175.54	$173.03	-$2.51	43% 7727-10453 (18180)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Magda Linetteavg 64¢	$49	$50	+$1	54% 5904-4953 (10857)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Aliona Faleiavg 36.4¢	$38.68	$37.15	-$1.53	61% 13844-8749 (22593)
0xheavy888<$100	Magda Linetteavg 66¢	$36.03	$35.21	-$0.82	55% 7458-5981 (13439)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Aliona Faleiavg 34¢	$21.76	$22.4	+$0.32	50% 4008-3990 (7998)

BaltazarGombka

Magda Linette

Invested

$2,150

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$16.54

Record

66%

285-144 (429)

38791873984189

Magda Linette

Invested

$310.55

Value

$310.55

PnL

+$7.71

Record

47%

12988-14555 (27543)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Aliona Falei

Invested

$245.47

Value

$249.08

PnL

+$3.61

Record

46%

9226-10935 (20161)

NotJumpCTR

Aliona Falei

Invested

$175.54

Value

$173.03

PnL

-$2.51

Record

43%

7727-10453 (18180)

Eulhunter<$100

Magda Linette

Invested

$49

Value

$50

PnL

+$1

Record

54%

5904-4953 (10857)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Aliona Falei

Invested

$38.68

Value

$37.15

PnL

-$1.53

Record

61%

13844-8749 (22593)

0xheavy888<$100

Magda Linette

Invested

$36.03

Value

$35.21

PnL

-$0.82

Record

55%

7458-5981 (13439)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Aliona Falei

Invested

$21.76

Value

$22.4

PnL

+$0.32

Record

50%

4008-3990 (7998)

Research grade

NeutralMagda Linette at 65%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Magda Linette

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Magda Linette. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAliona Falei 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpMagda Linette 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMagda Linette 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedMagda Linette 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Magda Linette 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Magda Linette wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.1%

65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$48.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

149.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.