Sopo: Irene Burillo Escorihuela vs Yuliana Lizarazo

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Irene Burillo Escorihuela (80%) · Irene Burillo Escorihuela at 93¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 16

Irene Burillo Escorihuela93¢Yuliana Lizarazo7¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Irene Burillo Escorihuela

Consensus Traders

Irene Burillo Escorihuela 80%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.2K

Combined PnL

-$62.54

Smart Money Entry

94.2¢ → 92.7¢

-2% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralIrene Burillo Escorihuela at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Irene Burillo Escorihuela

8 of 10 top traders (80%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Irene Burillo Escorihuela93%

Yuliana Lizarazo7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Irene Burillo Escorihuela8 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares7,643

Combined PnL-$59.08

Yuliana Lizarazo2 traders

Total Value$18.86

Total Shares353

Combined PnL-$3.45

Irene Burillo Escorihuela — 80%Yuliana Lizarazo — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Irene Burillo Escorihuela. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpIrene Burillo Escorihuela 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrIrene Burillo Escorihuela 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedIrene Burillo Escorihuela 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Irene Burillo Escorihuela 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 94.4¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	+$11.99	24% 86-278 (364)
MA MadridTime	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 95.4¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$83.01	24% 83-258 (341)
38 38791873984189	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 92.7¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$12.26	49% 374-391 (765)
TH thestingsnake	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 93.4¢	$580.44	$575.33	-$5.12	25% 34-104 (138)
RN1	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 94.1¢	$521.13	$510.57	-$10.56	54% 230-196 (426)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 94¢	$502.2	$497.33	-$0.33	48% 128-136 (264)
└ Irene Burillo Escorihuela leg	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 94¢	$363.15	$363.54	+$0.39
└ Yuliana Lizarazo leg	Yuliana Lizarazoavg 6.1¢	$139.04	$133.79	-$0.72
VE VenusianARB<$100	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 90¢	$211.77	$241.34	+$35.44	24% 81-262 (343)
└ Irene Burillo Escorihuela leg	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 90¢	$122.88	$125.54	+$2.05
└ Yuliana Lizarazo leg	Yuliana Lizarazoavg 6.2¢	$88.89	$115.81	+$33.39
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 92.4¢	$174.31	$223.55	+$49.24	25% 84-246 (330)
└ Yuliana Lizarazo leg	Yuliana Lizarazoavg 6.6¢	$79.48	$132.28	+$52.8
└ Irene Burillo Escorihuela leg	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 92.4¢	$94.83	$91.26	-$3.57
GA Gaditima<$100	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 88¢	$77.67	$83.41	+$5.74	47% 28-32 (60)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Yuliana Lizarazoavg 6.8¢	$20.3	$16.05	-$4.25	0% 0-31 (31)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 91.6¢	$13.75	$14.2	+$0.46	13% 27-174 (201)
SC SchruteBucks<$100	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 93¢	$19.84	$8.33	+$9.14	21% 38-144 (182)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Yuliana Lizarazoavg 4¢	$2.12	$2.81	+$0.8	54% 31-26 (57)

Limousin

Irene Burillo Escorihuela

Invested

$3,401.89

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$11.99

Record

24%

86-278 (364)

MadridTime

Irene Burillo Escorihuela

Invested

$1,580.89

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$83.01

Record

24%

83-258 (341)

38791873984189

Irene Burillo Escorihuela

Invested

$1,145.91

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$12.26

Record

49%

374-391 (765)

thestingsnake

Irene Burillo Escorihuela

Invested

$580.44

Value

$575.33

PnL

-$5.12

Record

25%

34-104 (138)

RN1

Irene Burillo Escorihuela

Invested

$521.13

Value

$510.57

PnL

-$10.56

Record

54%

230-196 (426)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Irene Burillo Escorihuela

Invested

$502.2

Value

$497.33

PnL

-$0.33

Record

48%

128-136 (264)

Both legs:

Irene Burillo Escorihuela$363.1594¢+$0.39

Yuliana Lizarazo$139.046.1¢-$0.72

VenusianARB<$100

Irene Burillo Escorihuela

Invested

$211.77

Value

$241.34

PnL

+$35.44

Record

24%

81-262 (343)

Both legs:

Irene Burillo Escorihuela$122.8890¢+$2.05

Yuliana Lizarazo$88.896.2¢+$33.39

LightParadoxARB<$100

Irene Burillo Escorihuela

Invested

$174.31

Value

$223.55

PnL

+$49.24

Record

25%

84-246 (330)

Both legs:

Yuliana Lizarazo$79.486.6¢+$52.8

Irene Burillo Escorihuela$94.8392.4¢-$3.57

Gaditima<$100

Irene Burillo Escorihuela

Invested

$77.67

Value

$83.41

PnL

+$5.74

Record

47%

28-32 (60)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Yuliana Lizarazo

Invested

$20.3

Value

$16.05

PnL

-$4.25

Record

0-31 (31)

BillBenter2026<$100

Irene Burillo Escorihuela

Invested

$13.75

Value

$14.2

PnL

+$0.46

Record

13%

27-174 (201)

SchruteBucks<$100

Irene Burillo Escorihuela

Invested

$19.84

Value

$8.33

PnL

+$9.14

Record

21%

38-144 (182)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Yuliana Lizarazo

Invested

$2.12

Value

$2.81

PnL

+$0.8

Record

54%

31-26 (57)

Research grade

NeutralIrene Burillo Escorihuela at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Irene Burillo Escorihuela

8 of 10 top traders (80%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Irene Burillo Escorihuela. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpIrene Burillo Escorihuela 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrIrene Burillo Escorihuela 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedIrene Burillo Escorihuela 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Irene Burillo Escorihuela 70% · 10

Aligned

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Irene Burillo Escorihuela wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.9%

92.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.