Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (58%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Eala vs. Shnaider: Match O/U 21.5
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 42¢ · $97 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Over
3
Over 67%
$97.25
$3.17
Research grade
NeutralOver at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 58%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 46.6¢ | $61.02 | $57.58 | -$3.44 | 38% 3184-5178 (8362) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $17.06 | $22.39 | +$5.33 | 59% 9906-6885 (16791) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $16 | $17.28 | +$1.28 | 58% 41483-30101 (71584) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.