Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Alexandra Eala, while the market favors Diana Shnaider (57%). 1 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Pan Pacific Open: Alexandra Eala vs Diana Shnaider

1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Alexandra Eala (13%) · Alexandra Eala at 43¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 6

Alexandra Eala43¢Diana Shnaider57¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alexandra Eala

Consensus Traders

Alexandra Eala 13%

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

$28.57

Research grade

NeutralAlexandra Eala at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alexandra Eala

1 of 8 top traders (13%)Underdog side (market favors Diana Shnaider 57%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Alexandra Eala43%

Diana Shnaider57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alexandra Eala1 trader

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares5,132

Combined PnL+$25.66

Diana Shnaider7 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares3,866

Combined PnL+$2.91

Alexandra Eala — 13%Diana Shnaider — 87%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR	Alexandra Ealaavg 42¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$25.66	73% 3575-1312 (4887)
BB bbbetk	Diana Shnaideravg 57¢	$854.99	$869.98	+$7.51	50% 149-147 (296)
VeryLucky888	Diana Shnaideravg 58¢	$1.0K	$862.5	-$5.68	58% 41361-29991 (71352)
38 38791873984189	Diana Shnaideravg 57.4¢	$362.45	$362.79	+$0.35	—
0xheavy888<$100	Diana Shnaideravg 58¢	$59.16	$58.65	-$0.51	55% 7013-5629 (12642)
hammyandcheese<$100	Diana Shnaideravg 56¢	$39.34	$40.75	+$1.06	56% 374-294 (668)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Diana Shnaideravg 57¢	$28.5	$28.75	+$0.25	55% 5681-4719 (10400)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Diana Shnaideravg 59¢	$7.34	$7.21	-$0.06	47% 2223-2507 (4730)

JAMJAMJAM4CTR

Alexandra Eala

Invested

$2,155.34

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$25.66

Record

73%

3575-1312 (4887)

bbbetk

Diana Shnaider

Invested

$854.99

Value

$869.98

PnL

+$7.51

Record

50%

149-147 (296)

VeryLucky888

Diana Shnaider

Invested

$1,005.99

Value

$862.5

PnL

-$5.68

Record

58%

41361-29991 (71352)

38791873984189

Diana Shnaider

Invested

$362.45

Value

$362.79

PnL

+$0.35

Record

—

0xheavy888<$100

Diana Shnaider

Invested

$59.16

Value

$58.65

PnL

-$0.51

Record

55%

7013-5629 (12642)

hammyandcheese<$100

Diana Shnaider

Invested

$39.34

Value

$40.75

PnL

+$1.06

Record

56%

374-294 (668)

Eulhunter<$100

Diana Shnaider

Invested

$28.5

Value

$28.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

55%

5681-4719 (10400)

ameisgoat11<$100

Diana Shnaider

Invested

$7.34

Value

$7.21

PnL

-$0.06

Record

47%

2223-2507 (4730)

Research grade

NeutralAlexandra Eala at 43%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Alexandra Eala

1 of 8 top traders (13%)Underdog side (market favors Diana Shnaider 57%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alexandra Eala wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.