Pan Pacific Open: Alexandra Eala vs Talia Gibson

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Alexandra Eala (43%) · Alexandra Eala at 71¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 4

Alexandra Eala71¢Talia Gibson29¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alexandra Eala

Consensus Traders

Alexandra Eala 43%

Total Value

$9.0K

Combined PnL

$63.38

Smart Money Entry

71.9¢ → 70.5¢

-2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlexandra Eala at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alexandra Eala

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Alexandra Eala71%

Talia Gibson30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alexandra Eala3 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares10,585

Combined PnL+$103.24

Talia Gibson4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares4,575

Combined PnL-$39.86

Alexandra Eala — 43%Talia Gibson — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE71359d50Ea42c73bFf065ec47F418506A7aC9a0-1771230981470	Alexandra Ealaavg 72¢	$7.2K	$7.3K	+$100	72% 343-136 (479)
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR	Talia Gibsonavg 28¢	$900	$867.86	-$32.14	51% 3889-3811 (7700)
VeryLucky888	Alexandra Ealaavg 71¢	$506.83	$411.5	+$3.67	58% 40677-29411 (70088)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Talia Gibsonavg 28¢	$302.09	$291.31	-$10.79	62% 13594-8446 (22040)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Talia Gibsonavg 27.7¢	$59.35	$63.1	+$3.75	58% 28040-20670 (48710)
0xheavy888<$100	Alexandra Ealaavg 71¢	$60.35	$59.93	-$0.43	56% 6870-5503 (12373)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Talia Gibsonavg 28¢	$19.05	$18.37	-$0.68	52% 4645-4354 (8999)

0xE71359d50Ea42c73bFf065ec47F418506A7aC9a0-1771230981470

Alexandra Eala

Invested

$7,200

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$100

Record

72%

343-136 (479)

GamblingAddict12345CTR

Talia Gibson

Invested

$900

Value

$867.86

PnL

-$32.14

Record

51%

3889-3811 (7700)

VeryLucky888

Alexandra Eala

Invested

$506.83

Value

$411.5

PnL

+$3.67

Record

58%

40677-29411 (70088)

LilybaeumCTR

Talia Gibson

Invested

$302.09

Value

$291.31

PnL

-$10.79

Record

62%

13594-8446 (22040)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Talia Gibson

Invested

$59.35

Value

$63.1

PnL

+$3.75

Record

58%

28040-20670 (48710)

0xheavy888<$100

Alexandra Eala

Invested

$60.35

Value

$59.93

PnL

-$0.43

Record

56%

6870-5503 (12373)

hi774cCTR<$100

Talia Gibson

Invested

$19.05

Value

$18.37

PnL

-$0.68

Record

52%

4645-4354 (8999)

Research grade

NeutralAlexandra Eala at 71%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Alexandra Eala

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alexandra Eala wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.