Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Harriet Dart, while the market favors Janice Tjen (66%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Guangzhou Open: Harriet Dart vs Janice Tjen
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Harriet Dart (80%) · Harriet Dart at 35¢ · $235 held · ends Nov 4
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Research candidate
Harriet Dart
5
Harriet Dart 80%
$234.63
$6.73
33¢ → 34.5¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
Research candidateHarriet Dart at 35%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Janice Tjen 66%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Harriet Dartavg 32.7¢ | $95.36 | $100.74 | +$5.38 | 49% 18462-18884 (37346) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Janice Tjenavg 65¢ | $96.85 | $97.6 | +$0.75 | 56% 6853-5493 (12346) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Harriet Dartavg 33.5¢ | $17 | $17.51 | +$0.51 | 59% 44348-30735 (75083) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Harriet Dartavg 34¢ | $12.63 | $12.82 | +$0.19 | 58% 27891-20538 (48429) |
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100 | Harriet Dartavg 35¢ | $6.05 | $5.97 | -$0.09 | 62% 13587-8427 (22014) |
Invested
$95.36
Value
$100.74
PnL
+$5.38
Record
49%
18462-18884 (37346)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$96.85
Value
$97.6
PnL
+$0.75
Record
56%
6853-5493 (12346)
Invested
$17
Value
$17.51
PnL
+$0.51
Record
59%
44348-30735 (75083)
Invested
$12.63
Value
$12.82
PnL
+$0.19
Record
58%
27891-20538 (48429)
Invested
$6.05
Value
$5.97
PnL
-$0.09
Record
62%
13587-8427 (22014)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.