Queretaro: Martina Colmegna vs Zuzanna Pawlikowska

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Zuzanna Pawlikowska (60%) · Zuzanna Pawlikowska at 63¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 2

Martina Colmegna38¢Zuzanna Pawlikowska62¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Zuzanna Pawlikowska

Consensus Traders

Zuzanna Pawlikowska 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.5K

Combined PnL

$2.3K

Smart Money Entry

43.3¢ → 62.5¢

+44% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralZuzanna Pawlikowska at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Zuzanna Pawlikowska

6 of 10 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Martina Colmegna38%

Zuzanna Pawlikowska63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Zuzanna Pawlikowska6 traders

Total Value$17.8K

Total Shares25,292

Combined PnL+$3.2K

Martina Colmegna4 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares6,276

Combined PnL-$876.14

Zuzanna Pawlikowska — 60%Martina Colmegna — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Zuzanna Pawlikowska. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleZuzanna Pawlikowska 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrMartina Colmegna 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedMartina Colmegna 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Martina Colmegna 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Zuzanna Pawlikowskaavg 43.3¢	$14.4K	$17.6K	+$3.2K	59% 44263-30624 (74887)
RN1CTR	Martina Colmegnaavg 56.7¢	$4.1K	$3.2K	-$872.42	54% 55325-47376 (102701)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Martina Colmegnaavg 52.8¢	$446.31	$239.77	-$4.89	53% 580-515 (1095)
└ Zuzanna Pawlikowska leg	Zuzanna Pawlikowskaavg 51.4¢	$106.42	$125.15	+$29.28
└ Martina Colmegna leg	Martina Colmegnaavg 52.8¢	$153.35	$114.63	-$34.17
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	Zuzanna Pawlikowskaavg 61¢	$243.81	$206.25	-$37.56	58% 18301-13450 (31751)
└ Zuzanna Pawlikowska leg	Zuzanna Pawlikowskaavg 61¢	$148.11	$151.88	+$3.77
└ Martina Colmegna leg	Martina Colmegnaavg 66¢	$95.7	$54.38	-$41.33
HO HomeRunHazard	Zuzanna Pawlikowskaavg 58¢	$134.56	$126.44	-$8.12	54% 16740-14044 (30784)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Zuzanna Pawlikowskaavg 34.6¢	$36.5	$44.33	+$7.84	52% 13483-12339 (25822)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Martina Colmegnaavg 56.9¢	$34.15	$29.25	-$4.9	48% 3615-3873 (7488)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Martina Colmegnaavg 68.5¢	$20	$19.43	-$0.57	67% 23026-11429 (34455)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Zuzanna Pawlikowskaavg 22.7¢	$3.92	$7.25	+$3.32	60% 3903-2647 (6550)
SC SchruteBucks	Zuzanna Pawlikowskaavg 34¢	$107	$5.83	-$28.77	56% 1785-1394 (3179)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Martina Colmegnaavg 57¢	$4.06	$5.81	+$1.75	54% 2570-2206 (4776)
tradecraft<$100	Zuzanna Pawlikowskaavg 28¢	$2.8	$2.75	-$0.05	52% 5820-5438 (11258)

UpTheBlues

Zuzanna Pawlikowska

Invested

$14,436.98

Value

$17.6K

PnL

+$3.2K

Record

59%

44263-30624 (74887)

RN1CTR

Martina Colmegna

Invested

$4,084.9

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$872.42

Record

54%

55325-47376 (102701)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Martina Colmegna

Invested

$446.31

Value

$239.77

PnL

-$4.89

Record

53%

580-515 (1095)

Both legs:

Zuzanna Pawlikowska$106.4251.4¢+$29.28

Martina Colmegna$153.3552.8¢-$34.17

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

Zuzanna Pawlikowska

Invested

$243.81

Value

$206.25

PnL

-$37.56

Record

58%

18301-13450 (31751)

Both legs:

Zuzanna Pawlikowska$148.1161¢+$3.77

Martina Colmegna$95.766¢-$41.33

HomeRunHazard

Zuzanna Pawlikowska

Invested

$134.56

Value

$126.44

PnL

-$8.12

Record

54%

16740-14044 (30784)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Zuzanna Pawlikowska

Invested

$36.5

Value

$44.33

PnL

+$7.84

Record

52%

13483-12339 (25822)

efntrickCTR<$100

Martina Colmegna

Invested

$34.15

Value

$29.25

PnL

-$4.9

Record

48%

3615-3873 (7488)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Martina Colmegna

Invested

$20

Value

$19.43

PnL

-$0.57

Record

67%

23026-11429 (34455)

thestingsnake<$100

Zuzanna Pawlikowska

Invested

$3.92

Value

$7.25

PnL

+$3.32

Record

60%

3903-2647 (6550)

SchruteBucks

Zuzanna Pawlikowska

Invested

$107

Value

$5.83

PnL

-$28.77

Record

56%

1785-1394 (3179)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Martina Colmegna

Invested

$4.06

Value

$5.81

PnL

+$1.75

Record

54%

2570-2206 (4776)

tradecraft<$100

Zuzanna Pawlikowska

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.75

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

5820-5438 (11258)

Research grade

NeutralZuzanna Pawlikowska at 63%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Zuzanna Pawlikowska

6 of 10 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Zuzanna Pawlikowska. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleZuzanna Pawlikowska 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrMartina Colmegna 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedMartina Colmegna 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Martina Colmegna 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Zuzanna Pawlikowska wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.