Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Mary Stoiana

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Sorana Cirstea (100%) · Sorana Cirstea at 78¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12

Sorana Cirstea78¢Mary Stoiana22¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Sorana Cirstea

Consensus Traders

Sorana Cirstea 100%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$7.27

Smart Money Entry

77¢ → 77.5¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

Research candidateSorana Cirstea at 78%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sorana Cirstea

8 of 8 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Sorana Cirstea78%

Mary Stoiana23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sorana Cirstea8 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,897

Combined PnL-$7.27

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Sorana Cirstea. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSorana Cirstea 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrSorana Cirstea 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedSorana Cirstea 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Sorana Cirstea 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Sorana Cirsteaavg 77¢	$972.04	$972.04	-$0	58% 46330-33448 (79778)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Sorana Cirsteaavg 77.9¢	$657.64	$645.94	-$11.7	42% 7968-11158 (19126)
FL Flaznorp	Sorana Cirsteaavg 76¢	$269.24	$271.01	+$1.77	51% 25630-24353 (49983)
38 38791873984189	Sorana Cirsteaavg 76¢	$152	$154	+$2	48% 60760-65418 (126178)
0xheavy888	Sorana Cirsteaavg 77¢	$129.36	$129.36	-$0	56% 7879-6308 (14187)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Sorana Cirsteaavg 76¢	$38	$38.5	+$0.5	54% 6251-5315 (11566)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Sorana Cirsteaavg 76¢	$9.99	$10.13	+$0.13	54% 2564-2224 (4788)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Sorana Cirsteaavg 77¢	$5	$3.88	+$0.03	52% 8742-7954 (16696)

VeryLucky888

Sorana Cirstea

Invested

$972.04

Value

$972.04

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

46330-33448 (79778)

ferrariChampions2026

Sorana Cirstea

Invested

$657.64

Value

$645.94

PnL

-$11.7

Record

42%

7968-11158 (19126)

Flaznorp

Sorana Cirstea

Invested

$269.24

Value

$271.01

PnL

+$1.77

Record

51%

25630-24353 (49983)

38791873984189

Sorana Cirstea

Invested

$152

Value

$154

PnL

+$2

Record

48%

60760-65418 (126178)

0xheavy888

Sorana Cirstea

Invested

$129.36

Value

$129.36

PnL

-$0

Record

56%

7879-6308 (14187)

Eulhunter<$100

Sorana Cirstea

Invested

$38

Value

$38.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

54%

6251-5315 (11566)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Sorana Cirstea

Invested

$9.99

Value

$10.13

PnL

+$0.13

Record

54%

2564-2224 (4788)

ameisgoat11<$100

Sorana Cirstea

Invested

Value

$3.88

PnL

+$0.03

Record

52%

8742-7954 (16696)

Research grade

Research candidateSorana Cirstea at 78%

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Sorana Cirstea

8 of 8 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Sorana Cirstea. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSorana Cirstea 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrSorana Cirstea 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedSorana Cirstea 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Sorana Cirstea 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sorana Cirstea wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.