Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Gabriela Ce, while the market favors Solana Sierra (66%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Curitiba: Gabriela Ce vs Solana Sierra

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Gabriela Ce (50%) · Gabriela Ce at 35¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 4

Gabriela Ce35¢Solana Sierra65¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Gabriela Ce

Consensus Traders

Gabriela Ce 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.6K

Combined PnL

-$640.7

Smart Money Entry

27.7¢ → 34.5¢

+25% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralGabriela Ce at 35%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Gabriela Ce

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Solana Sierra 66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Gabriela Ce35%

Solana Sierra66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Gabriela Ce4 traders

Total Value$872.19

Total Shares4,876

Combined PnL-$618.68

Solana Sierra4 traders

Total Value$342.09

Total Shares471

Combined PnL-$22.02

Gabriela Ce — 50%Solana Sierra — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Gabriela Ceavg 28¢	$6.9K	$5.4K	$-1.5K	59% 44610-31007 (75617)
└ Gabriela Ce leg	Gabriela Ceavg 28¢	$5.8K	$4.2K	$-1.5K
└ Solana Sierra leg	Solana Sierraavg 76.3¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$44.72
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Gabriela Ceavg 28¢	$1.3K	$748.13	-$577.88	54% 16868-14145 (31013)
1L 1lovejump	Solana Sierraavg 74.7¢	$228.1	$190.89	-$19.7	54% 630-547 (1177)
tradecraft	Solana Sierraavg 80¢	$100	$99.38	-$0.63	52% 5875-5510 (11385)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Gabriela Ceavg 24.1¢	$68.62	$64.45	-$4.17	52% 13563-12405 (25968)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Gabriela Ceavg 26.6¢	$94.16	$57.02	-$37.14	60% 3967-2670 (6637)
0xheavy888<$100	Solana Sierraavg 74¢	$44.27	$42.78	-$1.49	56% 6915-5529 (12444)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Solana Sierraavg 71¢	$9.23	$9.04	-$0.2	58% 18402-13504 (31906)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Gabriela Ceavg 23¢	$2.09	$2.59	+$0.5	58% 40758-29479 (70237)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Gabriela Ce

Invested

$6,858.64

Value

$5.4K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

59%

44610-31007 (75617)

Both legs:

Gabriela Ce$5,780.8828¢$-1.5K

Solana Sierra$1,077.7676.3¢+$44.72

HomeRunHazardCTR

Gabriela Ce

Invested

$1,326

Value

$748.13

PnL

-$577.88

Record

54%

16868-14145 (31013)

1lovejump

Solana Sierra

Invested

$228.1

Value

$190.89

PnL

-$19.7

Record

54%

630-547 (1177)

tradecraft

Solana Sierra

Invested

$100

Value

$99.38

PnL

-$0.63

Record

52%

5875-5510 (11385)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Gabriela Ce

Invested

$68.62

Value

$64.45

PnL

-$4.17

Record

52%

13563-12405 (25968)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Gabriela Ce

Invested

$94.16

Value

$57.02

PnL

-$37.14

Record

60%

3967-2670 (6637)

0xheavy888<$100

Solana Sierra

Invested

$44.27

Value

$42.78

PnL

-$1.49

Record

56%

6915-5529 (12444)

BillBenter2026<$100

Solana Sierra

Invested

$9.23

Value

$9.04

PnL

-$0.2

Record

58%

18402-13504 (31906)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Gabriela Ce

Invested

$2.09

Value

$2.59

PnL

+$0.5

Record

58%

40758-29479 (70237)

Research grade

NeutralGabriela Ce at 35%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Gabriela Ce

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Solana Sierra 66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Gabriela Ce wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance36.6%

34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$172.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

272.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.