Curitiba: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Laura Pigossi
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Maria Lourdes Carle (78%) · Maria Lourdes Carle at 100¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Maria Lourdes Carle
9
Maria Lourdes Carle 78%
$4.1K
-$684.56
77.2¢ → 99.6¢
+29% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralMaria Lourdes Carle at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 | Maria Lourdes Carleavg 78.2¢ | $3.8K | $3.2K | -$622.91 | 52% 13507-12361 (25868) |
TH thestingsnake | Maria Lourdes Carleavg 85.3¢ | $627.75 | $468.44 | -$14.23 | 60% 3925-2655 (6580) |
 0xheavy888 | Maria Lourdes Carleavg 62¢ | $343.32 | $162.28 | -$25.78 | 56% 6850-5490 (12340) |
1L 1lovejump | Maria Lourdes Carleavg 65¢ | $447.84 | $112.19 | -$39.28 | 53% 596-525 (1121) |
EF efntrick<$100 | Maria Lourdes Carleavg 69.7¢ | $52.45 | $54.12 | +$1.67 | 48% 3630-3886 (7516) |
0X 0x1111111111CTR<$100 | Laura Pigossiavg 30¢ | $34.2 | $53.58 | +$19.38 | 61% 1704-1068 (2772) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Maria Lourdes Carleavg 62.4¢ | $40 | $33.98 | -$6.02 | 67% 23049-11442 (34491) |
 RN1<$100 | Maria Lourdes Carleavg 71.6¢ | $17.91 | $24.96 | +$7.05 | 54% 55386-47442 (102828) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Laura Pigossiavg 9¢ | $7.62 | $3.17 | -$4.45 | 54% 2639-2268 (4907) |
Invested
$3,845.62
Value
$3.2K
PnL
-$622.91
Record
52%
13507-12361 (25868)
Invested
$627.75
Value
$468.44
PnL
-$14.23
Record
60%
3925-2655 (6580)
0xheavy888Invested
$343.32
Value
$162.28
PnL
-$25.78
Record
56%
6850-5490 (12340)
Invested
$447.84
Value
$112.19
PnL
-$39.28
Record
53%
596-525 (1121)
Invested
$52.45
Value
$54.12
PnL
+$1.67
Record
48%
3630-3886 (7516)
Invested
$34.2
Value
$53.58
PnL
+$19.38
Record
61%
1704-1068 (2772)
Invested
$40
Value
$33.98
PnL
-$6.02
Record
67%
23049-11442 (34491)
RN1<$100Invested
$17.91
Value
$24.96
PnL
+$7.05
Record
54%
55386-47442 (102828)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$7.62
Value
$3.17
PnL
-$4.45
Record
54%
2639-2268 (4907)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
Maria Lourdes Carle — $3.2K
thestingsnake
Maria Lourdes Carle — $468.44
0xheavy888
Maria Lourdes Carle — $162.28
1lovejump
Maria Lourdes Carle — $112.19
efntrick
Maria Lourdes Carle — $54.12
0x1111111111
CTRLaura Pigossi — $53.58
pauleta23
Maria Lourdes Carle — $33.98
RN1
Maria Lourdes Carle — $24.96
HRTrading
CTRLaura Pigossi — $3.17