Queretaro: Marian Gomez Pezuela Cano vs Carmen Andreea Herea

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Carmen Andreea Herea (70%) · Carmen Andreea Herea at 91¢ · $42K held · ends Nov 3

Marian Gomez Pezuela Cano9¢Carmen Andreea Herea91¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Carmen Andreea Herea

Consensus Traders

Carmen Andreea Herea 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$42.2K

Combined PnL

$2.2K

Smart Money Entry

87.5¢ → 91.2¢

+4% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralCarmen Andreea Herea at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Carmen Andreea Herea

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Marian Gomez Pezuela Cano9%

Carmen Andreea Herea91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Carmen Andreea Herea7 traders

Total Value$40.7K

Total Shares43,887

Combined PnL+$2.2K

Marian Gomez Pezuela Cano3 traders

Total Value$97.7

Total Shares1,142

Combined PnL-$15.23

Carmen Andreea Herea — 70%Marian Gomez Pezuela Cano — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Carmen Andreea Hereaavg 87.4¢	$35.6K	$37.9K	+$2.3K	59% 44290-30654 (74944)
RN1ARB<$100	Marian Gomez Pezuela Canoavg 13.5¢	$3.6K	$1.4K	$-2.2K	54% 55353-47409 (102762)
└ Marian Gomez Pezuela Cano leg	Marian Gomez Pezuela Canoavg 13.5¢	$3.2K	$990.78	$-2.2K
└ Carmen Andreea Herea leg	Carmen Andreea Hereaavg 88.3¢	$411.66	$446.99	+$35.33
HO HomeRunHazard	Carmen Andreea Hereaavg 91¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$152.52	54% 16741-14048 (30789)
1L 1lovejump	Carmen Andreea Hereaavg 88¢	$1.3K	$773.33	+$24.38	53% 584-515 (1099)
TH thestingsnake	Carmen Andreea Hereaavg 87¢	$737.97	$498.04	+$45.82	60% 3908-2649 (6557)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Carmen Andreea Hereaavg 91.3¢	$99.5	$96.63	-$2.87	58% 18304-13452 (31756)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Marian Gomez Pezuela Canoavg 10.6¢	$106	$87.06	-$18.94	59% 29934-20654 (50588)
HRTrading<$100	Carmen Andreea Hereaavg 86.4¢	$41.4	$40.3	-$1.09	54% 2609-2230 (4839)
TRCM<$100	Carmen Andreea Hereaavg 81.2¢	$31.62	$32.59	+$0.97	55% 3895-3129 (7024)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Marian Gomez Pezuela Canoavg 4.7¢	$4.49	$8.14	+$3.65	52% 5822-5445 (11267)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Marian Gomez Pezuela Canoavg 5.3¢	$2.44	$2.5	+$0.06	62% 13579-8414 (21993)

UpTheBlues

Carmen Andreea Herea

Invested

$35,570.44

Value

$37.9K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

59%

44290-30654 (74944)

RN1ARB<$100

Marian Gomez Pezuela Cano

Invested

$3,627.75

Value

$1.4K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

54%

55353-47409 (102762)

Both legs:

Marian Gomez Pezuela Cano$3,216.0813.5¢$-2.2K

Carmen Andreea Herea$411.6688.3¢+$35.33

HomeRunHazard

Carmen Andreea Herea

Invested

$1,524.32

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$152.52

Record

54%

16741-14048 (30789)

1lovejump

Carmen Andreea Herea

Invested

$1,291.55

Value

$773.33

PnL

+$24.38

Record

53%

584-515 (1099)

thestingsnake

Carmen Andreea Herea

Invested

$737.97

Value

$498.04

PnL

+$45.82

Record

60%

3908-2649 (6557)

BillBenter2026<$100

Carmen Andreea Herea

Invested

$99.5

Value

$96.63

PnL

-$2.87

Record

58%

18304-13452 (31756)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Marian Gomez Pezuela Cano

Invested

$106

Value

$87.06

PnL

-$18.94

Record

59%

29934-20654 (50588)

HRTrading<$100

Carmen Andreea Herea

Invested

$41.4

Value

$40.3

PnL

-$1.09

Record

54%

2609-2230 (4839)

TRCM<$100

Carmen Andreea Herea

Invested

$31.62

Value

$32.59

PnL

+$0.97

Record

55%

3895-3129 (7024)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Marian Gomez Pezuela Cano

Invested

$4.49

Value

$8.14

PnL

+$3.65

Record

52%

5822-5445 (11267)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Marian Gomez Pezuela Cano

Invested

$2.44

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0.06

Record

62%

13579-8414 (21993)

Research grade

NeutralCarmen Andreea Herea at 91%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Carmen Andreea Herea

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Carmen Andreea Herea wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.6%

91.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.