Curitiba: Ana Candiotto vs Luna Cinalli
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Luna Cinalli (78%) · Luna Cinalli at 99¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Luna Cinalli
9
Luna Cinalli 78%
$4.5K
$24.96
87.5¢ → 98.6¢
+13% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralLuna Cinalli at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH thestingsnake | Luna Cinalliavg 87.4¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$141.35 | 60% 3903-2647 (6550) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Luna Cinalliavg 91.8¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$55.9 | 54% 16740-14044 (30784) |
UP UpTheBlues | Luna Cinalliavg 83.8¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$96.5 | 59% 44263-30624 (74887) |
1L 1lovejump | Luna Cinalliavg 83.5¢ | $805.18 | $388.77 | +$0.84 | 53% 580-515 (1095) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Luna Cinalliavg 94¢ | $47 | $48.33 | +$1.33 | 54% 2570-2206 (4776) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR | Ana Candiottoavg 12.6¢ | $121.93 | $38.58 | -$83.34 | 52% 13483-12339 (25822) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Ana Candiottoavg 25¢ | $18 | $26.64 | +$8.28 | 58% 27870-20508 (48378) |
EF efntrick<$100 | Luna Cinalliavg 64.1¢ | $12.97 | $12.74 | -$0.23 | 48% 3615-3873 (7488) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Luna Cinalliavg 86¢ | $10 | $7.33 | -$2.67 | 67% 23026-11429 (34455) |
Invested
$1,562.59
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$141.35
Record
60%
3903-2647 (6550)
Invested
$1,236.6
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$55.9
Record
54%
16740-14044 (30784)
Invested
$1,179
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$96.5
Record
59%
44263-30624 (74887)
Invested
$805.18
Value
$388.77
PnL
+$0.84
Record
53%
580-515 (1095)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$47
Value
$48.33
PnL
+$1.33
Record
54%
2570-2206 (4776)
Invested
$121.93
Value
$38.58
PnL
-$83.34
Record
52%
13483-12339 (25822)
Invested
$18
Value
$26.64
PnL
+$8.28
Record
58%
27870-20508 (48378)
Invested
$12.97
Value
$12.74
PnL
-$0.23
Record
48%
3615-3873 (7488)
Invested
$10
Value
$7.33
PnL
-$2.67
Record
67%
23026-11429 (34455)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
thestingsnake
Luna Cinalli — $1.6K
HomeRunHazard
Luna Cinalli — $1.3K
UpTheBlues
Luna Cinalli — $1.1K
1lovejump
Luna Cinalli — $388.77
HRTrading
Luna Cinalli — $48.33
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
CTRAna Candiotto — $38.58
LeLynxMalynx
CTRAna Candiotto — $26.64
efntrick
Luna Cinalli — $12.74
pauleta23
Luna Cinalli — $7.33