Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Cristina Bucsa, while the market favors Maya Joint (55%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Pan Pacific Open: Cristina Bucsa vs Maya Joint
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Cristina Bucsa (60%) · Cristina Bucsa at 46¢ · $704 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Cristina Bucsa
5
Cristina Bucsa 60%
$704.03
-$33.71
45.9¢ → 45.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralCristina Bucsa at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Maya Joint 55%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 88MCTR | Cristina Bucsaavg 46¢ | $472.76 | $441.93 | -$30.83 | 42% 770-1070 (1840) |
 VeryLucky888 | Maya Jointavg 55¢ | $550 | $168.14 | -$1.54 | 58% 40486-29261 (69747) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Maya Jointavg 56¢ | $46.48 | $47.31 | +$0.83 | 56% 6853-5493 (12346) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Cristina Bucsaavg 45¢ | $43.2 | $41.28 | -$1.92 | 58% 27891-20538 (48429) |
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100 | Cristina Bucsaavg 45¢ | $5.61 | $5.36 | -$0.25 | 62% 13587-8427 (22014) |
88MCTRInvested
$472.76
Value
$441.93
PnL
-$30.83
Record
42%
770-1070 (1840)
VeryLucky888Invested
$550
Value
$168.14
PnL
-$1.54
Record
58%
40486-29261 (69747)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$46.48
Value
$47.31
PnL
+$0.83
Record
56%
6853-5493 (12346)
Invested
$43.2
Value
$41.28
PnL
-$1.92
Record
58%
27891-20538 (48429)
Invested
$5.61
Value
$5.36
PnL
-$0.25
Record
62%
13587-8427 (22014)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.