Sopo: Lucia Bronzetti vs Julieta Pareja

9 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Lucia Bronzetti (53%) · Lucia Bronzetti at 66¢ · $26K held · ends Nov 17

Lucia Bronzetti66¢Julieta Pareja34¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lucia Bronzetti

Consensus Traders

Lucia Bronzetti 53%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$26.5K

Combined PnL

$-1.7K

Smart Money Entry

75.3¢ → 65.5¢

-13% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralLucia Bronzetti at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lucia Bronzetti

9 of 17 top traders (53%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lucia Bronzetti66%

Julieta Pareja35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lucia Bronzetti9 traders

Total Value$14.1K

Total Shares19,518

Combined PnL$-2.1K

Julieta Pareja8 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares8,564

Combined PnL+$445.36

Lucia Bronzetti — 53%Julieta Pareja — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on Lucia Bronzetti. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpLucia Bronzetti 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJulieta Pareja 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedLucia Bronzetti 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Lucia Bronzetti 53% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LimousinARB<$100	Lucia Bronzettiavg 88.5¢	$8.7K	$7.5K	$-1.3K	25% 212-653 (865)
└ Lucia Bronzetti leg	Lucia Bronzettiavg 88.5¢	$7.0K	$4.8K	$-2.2K
└ Julieta Pareja leg	Julieta Parejaavg 25.8¢	$1.8K	$2.7K	+$939.64
65 6512395314597884	Lucia Bronzettiavg 74.6¢	$8.8K	$7.4K	$-1.4K	51% 3162-3063 (6225)
LI LightParadox	Lucia Bronzettiavg 81.1¢	$6.0K	$4.8K	-$997.06	25% 213-642 (855)
VE VenusianCTR	Julieta Parejaavg 22.8¢	$1.1K	$1.7K	+$561.59	25% 212-653 (865)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Julieta Parejaavg 36.8¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$84.15	25% 214-632 (846)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Julieta Parejaavg 16¢	$1.7K	$1.0K	-$655.98	54% 1624-1378 (3002)
└ Julieta Pareja leg	Julieta Parejaavg 16¢	$1.5K	$816.04	-$716.79
└ Lucia Bronzetti leg	Lucia Bronzettiavg 67¢	$166.29	$227.1	+$60.81
BA babybells	Lucia Bronzettiavg 65.1¢	$1.4K	$695.77	+$93.68	17% 77-365 (442)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Lucia Bronzettiavg 64.7¢	$1.1K	$586.22	+$171.53	48% 840-912 (1752)
└ Lucia Bronzetti leg	Lucia Bronzettiavg 64.7¢	$359.67	$414.22	+$112.83
└ Julieta Pareja leg	Julieta Parejaavg 18¢	$121.74	$172	+$58.7
TH thestingsnake	Lucia Bronzettiavg 63.3¢	$674.4	$567.27	+$121.4	17% 71-337 (408)
TH thirdt1me	Lucia Bronzettiavg 68.8¢	$1.7K	$473.43	+$20.84	37% 68-118 (186)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Lucia Bronzettiavg 72.8¢	$333.11	$329.94	-$3.17	56% 3797-2956 (6753)
└ Lucia Bronzetti leg	Lucia Bronzettiavg 72.8¢	$238.41	$198.01	-$40.4
└ Julieta Pareja leg	Julieta Parejaavg 28.4¢	$94.7	$131.93	+$37.23
PA pauleta23	Lucia Bronzettiavg 62.7¢	$92.34	$118.47	+$26.13	22% 117-422 (539)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Lucia Bronzettiavg 64.5¢	$48.39	$60.38	+$11.99	13% 71-461 (532)
RN1<$100	Lucia Bronzettiavg 76.6¢	$19.76	$16.89	-$2.87	58% 3756-2709 (6465)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Julieta Parejaavg 45.6¢	$20.96	$8.97	-$11.99	52% 61-57 (118)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Julieta Parejaavg 61.8¢	$14.82	$5.27	-$9.55	48% 420-450 (870)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Julieta Parejaavg 61¢	$12.2	$4.4	-$7.8	55% 106-85 (191)
TRCMCTR<$100	Julieta Parejaavg 23.8¢	$2.6	$4.22	+$1.61	8% 34-415 (449)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Julieta Parejaavg 66¢	$6.6	$2.2	-$4.4	37% 189-328 (517)
VeryLucky888<$100	Lucia Bronzettiavg 35¢	$0.5	$1.11	+$0.61	49% 231-238 (469)
OJ ojgCTR<$100	Julieta Parejaavg 18¢	$0.9	$0.95	+$0.05	37% 86-144 (230)

LimousinARB<$100

Lucia Bronzetti

Invested

$8,740.99

Value

$7.5K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

25%

212-653 (865)

Both legs:

Lucia Bronzetti$6,975.7488.5¢$-2.2K

Julieta Pareja$1,760.4725.8¢+$939.64

6512395314597884

Lucia Bronzetti

Invested

$8,819.09

Value

$7.4K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

51%

3162-3063 (6225)

LightParadox

Lucia Bronzetti

Invested

$5,962.84

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$997.06

Record

25%

213-642 (855)

VenusianCTR

Julieta Pareja

Invested

$1,099.54

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$561.59

Record

25%

212-653 (865)

MadridTimeCTR

Julieta Pareja

Invested

$1,337.64

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$84.15

Record

25%

214-632 (846)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Julieta Pareja

Invested

$1,699.12

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$655.98

Record

54%

1624-1378 (3002)

Both legs:

Julieta Pareja$1,532.8316¢-$716.79

Lucia Bronzetti$166.2967¢+$60.81

babybells

Lucia Bronzetti

Invested

$1,386.01

Value

$695.77

PnL

+$93.68

Record

17%

77-365 (442)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Lucia Bronzetti

Invested

$1,081.79

Value

$586.22

PnL

+$171.53

Record

48%

840-912 (1752)

Both legs:

Lucia Bronzetti$359.6764.7¢+$112.83

Julieta Pareja$121.7418¢+$58.7

thestingsnake

Lucia Bronzetti

Invested

$674.4

Value

$567.27

PnL

+$121.4

Record

17%

71-337 (408)

thirdt1me

Lucia Bronzetti

Invested

$1,665.52

Value

$473.43

PnL

+$20.84

Record

37%

68-118 (186)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Lucia Bronzetti

Invested

$333.11

Value

$329.94

PnL

-$3.17

Record

56%

3797-2956 (6753)

Both legs:

Lucia Bronzetti$238.4172.8¢-$40.4

Julieta Pareja$94.728.4¢+$37.23

pauleta23

Lucia Bronzetti

Invested

$92.34

Value

$118.47

PnL

+$26.13

Record

22%

117-422 (539)

BillBenter2026<$100

Lucia Bronzetti

Invested

$48.39

Value

$60.38

PnL

+$11.99

Record

13%

71-461 (532)

RN1<$100

Lucia Bronzetti

Invested

$19.76

Value

$16.89

PnL

-$2.87

Record

58%

3756-2709 (6465)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Julieta Pareja

Invested

$20.96

Value

$8.97

PnL

-$11.99

Record

52%

61-57 (118)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Julieta Pareja

Invested

$14.82

Value

$5.27

PnL

-$9.55

Record

48%

420-450 (870)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Julieta Pareja

Invested

$12.2

Value

$4.4

PnL

-$7.8

Record

55%

106-85 (191)

TRCMCTR<$100

Julieta Pareja

Invested

$2.6

Value

$4.22

PnL

+$1.61

Record

34-415 (449)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Julieta Pareja

Invested

$6.6

Value

$2.2

PnL

-$4.4

Record

37%

189-328 (517)

VeryLucky888<$100

Lucia Bronzetti

Invested

$0.5

Value

$1.11

PnL

+$0.61

Record

49%

231-238 (469)

ojgCTR<$100

Julieta Pareja

Invested

$0.9

Value

$0.95

PnL

+$0.05

Record

37%

86-144 (230)

Research grade

NeutralLucia Bronzetti at 66%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Lucia Bronzetti

9 of 17 top traders (53%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on Lucia Bronzetti. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpLucia Bronzetti 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJulieta Pareja 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedLucia Bronzetti 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Lucia Bronzetti 53% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lucia Bronzetti wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.