Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Anna Bondar — but Kaitlin Quevedo won instead.
Set 1 Winner: Anna Bondar vs Kaitlin Quevedo
Resolved Kaitlin Quevedo. 20% of the top Polymarket traders held Anna Bondar. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
5
Anna Bondar 25%
1 arb excluded
$1.2K
-$307.89
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IV Ivan948CTR | Anna Bondaravg 44.9¢ | $584 | — | -$584 | 43% 58-76 (134) |
MI mishipolis | Kaitlin Quevedoavg 53.8¢ | $364.91 | $527.54 | +$168.53 | 50% 4484-4419 (8903) |
 poshposhARB<$100 | Kaitlin Quevedoavg 52.8¢ | $278.3 | $407.53 | +$129.24 | 59% 9671-6655 (16326) |
| └ Kaitlin Quevedo leg | Kaitlin Quevedoavg 52.8¢ | $215.04 | $407.53 | +$192.49 | |
| └ Anna Bondar leg | Anna Bondaravg 49.3¢ | $63.26 | — | -$63.26 | |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846 | Kaitlin Quevedoavg 56¢ | $100.57 | $179.59 | +$79.02 | 59% 30209-20922 (51131) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Kaitlin Quevedoavg 47¢ | $25.34 | $53.91 | +$28.57 | 58% 41203-29875 (71078) |
SH shiifoo<$100 | Kaitlin Quevedoavg 57¢ | — | — | +$0 | 60% 3283-2205 (5488) |
Invested
$584
Value
—
PnL
-$584
Record
43%
58-76 (134)
Invested
$364.91
Value
$527.54
PnL
+$168.53
Record
50%
4484-4419 (8903)
poshposhARB<$100Invested
$278.3
Value
$407.53
PnL
+$129.24
Record
59%
9671-6655 (16326)
Both legs:
Invested
$100.57
Value
$179.59
PnL
+$79.02
Record
59%
30209-20922 (51131)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$25.34
Value
$53.91
PnL
+$28.57
Record
58%
41203-29875 (71078)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
60%
3283-2205 (5488)
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