Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Anna Bondar, while the market favors Kaitlin Quevedo (51%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Guangzhou Open: Anna Bondar vs Kaitlin Quevedo
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Anna Bondar (80%) · Anna Bondar at 50¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 4
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Research candidate
Anna Bondar
5
Anna Bondar 80%
1 arb excluded
$4.0K
-$30.46
50¢ → 49.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
Research candidateAnna Bondar at 50%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Kaitlin Quevedo 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Anna Bondaravg 49¢ | $2.2K | $2.3K | +$22.77 | 54% 55997-48130 (104127) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Anna Bondaravg 51.6¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$52.66 | 58% 41190-29852 (71042) |
LI LilybaeumARB<$100 | Kaitlin Quevedoavg 48.6¢ | $394.83 | $405.62 | +$10.79 | 62% 13670-8504 (22174) |
| └ Kaitlin Quevedo leg | Kaitlin Quevedoavg 48.6¢ | $236.64 | $245.82 | +$9.18 | |
| └ Anna Bondar leg | Anna Bondaravg 49¢ | $158.19 | $159.8 | +$1.61 | |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Anna Bondaravg 53.5¢ | $89.88 | $88.2 | -$1.68 | 55% 6987-5605 (12592) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Kaitlin Quevedoavg 46¢ | $36.02 | $35.24 | +$1.17 | 58% 28249-20836 (49085) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Anna Bondaravg 53¢ | $6.43 | $6.67 | -$0.06 | 47% 2159-2455 (4614) |
RN1CTRInvested
$2,231.2
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$22.77
Record
54%
55997-48130 (104127)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$1,295.31
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$52.66
Record
58%
41190-29852 (71042)
Invested
$394.83
Value
$405.62
PnL
+$10.79
Record
62%
13670-8504 (22174)
Both legs:
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$89.88
Value
$88.2
PnL
-$1.68
Record
55%
6987-5605 (12592)
Invested
$36.02
Value
$35.24
PnL
+$1.17
Record
58%
28249-20836 (49085)
Invested
$6.43
Value
$6.67
PnL
-$0.06
Record
47%
2159-2455 (4614)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.