Courmayeur: Anna Blinkova vs Katarina Zavatska

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Anna Blinkova (78%) · Anna Blinkova at 71¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 5

Anna Blinkova71¢Katarina Zavatska29¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Anna Blinkova

Consensus Traders

Anna Blinkova 78%

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

$159.79

Smart Money Entry

86.5¢ → 71¢

-18% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralAnna Blinkova at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Anna Blinkova

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Anna Blinkova71%

Katarina Zavatska29%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Anna Blinkova7 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares3,569

Combined PnL+$59.36

Katarina Zavatska2 traders

Total Value$597.95

Total Shares3,737

Combined PnL+$100.43

Anna Blinkova — 78%Katarina Zavatska — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Anna Blinkova. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAnna Blinkova 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpAnna Blinkova 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrAnna Blinkova 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedAnna Blinkova 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Anna Blinkova 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Anna Blinkovaavg 87¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$1.48	54% 17008-14254 (31262)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Katarina Zavatskaavg 12.3¢	$488.57	$584.53	+$95.96	59% 45116-31500 (76616)
VeryLucky888	Anna Blinkovaavg 84.1¢	$499.31	$558.19	+$58.88	58% 41239-29904 (71143)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Anna Blinkovaavg 87¢	$26.1	$25.5	-$0.6	60% 4003-2690 (6693)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Katarina Zavatskaavg 10¢	$8.95	$13.43	+$4.48	52% 13665-12485 (26150)
HRTrading<$100	Anna Blinkovaavg 94¢	$13.63	$12.32	-$1.31	52% 3711-3383 (7094)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Anna Blinkovaavg 84.5¢	$8.45	$9.4	+$0.95	47% 2177-2478 (4655)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Anna Blinkovaavg 84¢	$5.85	$6.54	+$0.1	65% 1692-913 (2605)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Anna Blinkovaavg 88¢	$4.4	$4.25	-$0.15	58% 18502-13592 (32094)

HomeRunHazard

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$2,658.97

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$1.48

Record

54%

17008-14254 (31262)

UpTheBluesCTR

Katarina Zavatska

Invested

$488.57

Value

$584.53

PnL

+$95.96

Record

59%

45116-31500 (76616)

VeryLucky888

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$499.31

Value

$558.19

PnL

+$58.88

Record

58%

41239-29904 (71143)

thestingsnake<$100

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$26.1

Value

$25.5

PnL

-$0.6

Record

60%

4003-2690 (6693)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Katarina Zavatska

Invested

$8.95

Value

$13.43

PnL

+$4.48

Record

52%

13665-12485 (26150)

HRTrading<$100

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$13.63

Value

$12.32

PnL

-$1.31

Record

52%

3711-3383 (7094)

ameisgoat11<$100

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$8.45

Value

$9.4

PnL

+$0.95

Record

47%

2177-2478 (4655)

darkumbreon88<$100

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$5.85

Value

$6.54

PnL

+$0.1

Record

65%

1692-913 (2605)

BillBenter2026<$100

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$4.4

Value

$4.25

PnL

-$0.15

Record

58%

18502-13592 (32094)

Research grade

NeutralAnna Blinkova at 71%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Anna Blinkova

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Anna Blinkova. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAnna Blinkova 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpAnna Blinkova 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrAnna Blinkova 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedAnna Blinkova 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Anna Blinkova 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Anna Blinkova wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.0%

71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.