Courmayeur: Anna Blinkova vs Martyna Kubka

13 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Anna Blinkova (76%) · Anna Blinkova at 100¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 6

Anna Blinkova>99¢Martyna Kubka<1¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Anna Blinkova

Consensus Traders

Anna Blinkova 76%

Total Value

$20.2K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

88.3¢ → 100¢

+13% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralAnna Blinkova at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Anna Blinkova

13 of 17 top traders (76%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Anna Blinkova100%

Martyna Kubka0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Anna Blinkova13 traders

Total Value$20.1K

Total Shares20,588

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Martyna Kubka4 traders

Total Value$90.84

Total Shares377

Combined PnL+$6.39

Anna Blinkova — 76%Martyna Kubka — 24%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Anna Blinkova. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAnna Blinkova 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrAnna Blinkova 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedAnna Blinkova 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Anna Blinkova 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Anna Blinkovaavg 97.5¢	$13.1K	$12.9K	-$187.31	59% 45379-31733 (77112)
HO HomeRunHazard	Anna Blinkovaavg 93.1¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$31.7	54% 17115-14333 (31448)
0xheavy888	Anna Blinkovaavg 60.3¢	$873.8	$1.2K	+$349.89	55% 7053-5657 (12710)
VeryLucky888	Anna Blinkovaavg 60.7¢	$825.17	$1.2K	+$311.85	58% 41493-30115 (71608)
38 38791873984189	Anna Blinkovaavg 59.6¢	$1.2K	$830	+$457.03	46% 7951-9381 (17332)
RN1	Anna Blinkovaavg 58¢	$430.88	$634.91	+$204.03	54% 56317-48472 (104789)
poshposh	Anna Blinkovaavg 57¢	$171	$295.95	+$124.95	59% 9923-6892 (16815)
TH thestingsnake	Anna Blinkovaavg 83.6¢	$246.31	$266.37	+$23.06	60% 4033-2725 (6758)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Anna Blinkovaavg 87¢	$209.8	$209.08	-$0.71	52% 13723-12523 (26246)
TRCM<$100	Anna Blinkovaavg 61.1¢	$64.2	$65.1	+$0.9	55% 3937-3175 (7112)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Martyna Kubkaavg 18¢	$43.89	$49.99	+$6.1	59% 30366-21076 (51442)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Martyna Kubkaavg 38¢	$36.86	$36.86	+$0	50% 3801-3761 (7562)
PA pauleta23<$100	Anna Blinkovaavg 77¢	$10	$8.05	-$1.95	67% 23267-11674 (34941)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Anna Blinkovaavg 64¢	$6.4	$6.2	-$0.2	47% 2258-2548 (4806)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Anna Blinkovaavg 75¢	$7.5	$6.2	-$1.3	86% 5084-858 (5942)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Martyna Kubkaavg 21¢	$2.1	$2	-$0.1	51% 1398-1344 (2742)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Martyna Kubkaavg 6¢	$1.6	$1.99	+$0.4	51% 5974-5666 (11640)

UpTheBlues

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$13,112.45

Value

$12.9K

PnL

-$187.31

Record

59%

45379-31733 (77112)

HomeRunHazard

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$2,454.88

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$31.7

Record

54%

17115-14333 (31448)

0xheavy888

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$873.8

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$349.89

Record

55%

7053-5657 (12710)

VeryLucky888

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$825.17

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$311.85

Record

58%

41493-30115 (71608)

38791873984189

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$1,177.51

Value

$830

PnL

+$457.03

Record

46%

7951-9381 (17332)

RN1

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$430.88

Value

$634.91

PnL

+$204.03

Record

54%

56317-48472 (104789)

poshposh

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$171

Value

$295.95

PnL

+$124.95

Record

59%

9923-6892 (16815)

thestingsnake

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$246.31

Value

$266.37

PnL

+$23.06

Record

60%

4033-2725 (6758)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$209.8

Value

$209.08

PnL

-$0.71

Record

52%

13723-12523 (26246)

TRCM<$100

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$64.2

Value

$65.1

PnL

+$0.9

Record

55%

3937-3175 (7112)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Martyna Kubka

Invested

$43.89

Value

$49.99

PnL

+$6.1

Record

59%

30366-21076 (51442)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Martyna Kubka

Invested

$36.86

Value

$36.86

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

3801-3761 (7562)

pauleta23<$100

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$10

Value

$8.05

PnL

-$1.95

Record

67%

23267-11674 (34941)

ameisgoat11<$100

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$6.4

Value

$6.2

PnL

-$0.2

Record

47%

2258-2548 (4806)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$7.5

Value

$6.2

PnL

-$1.3

Record

86%

5084-858 (5942)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Martyna Kubka

Invested

$2.1

Value

PnL

-$0.1

Record

51%

1398-1344 (2742)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Martyna Kubka

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.99

PnL

+$0.4

Record

51%

5974-5666 (11640)

Research grade

NeutralAnna Blinkova at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Anna Blinkova

13 of 17 top traders (76%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Anna Blinkova. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAnna Blinkova 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrAnna Blinkova 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedAnna Blinkova 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Anna Blinkova 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Anna Blinkova wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.