Courmayeur: Anna Blinkova vs Dalma Galfi

12 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Anna Blinkova (80%) · Anna Blinkova at 100¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 3

Anna Blinkova>99¢Dalma Galfi<1¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Anna Blinkova

Consensus Traders

Anna Blinkova 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

$142.6

Smart Money Entry

80.2¢ → 100¢

+25% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralAnna Blinkova at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Anna Blinkova

12 of 15 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Anna Blinkova100%

Dalma Galfi0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Anna Blinkova12 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares5,572

Combined PnL+$129.17

Dalma Galfi3 traders

Total Value$160.65

Total Shares382

Combined PnL+$13.43

Anna Blinkova — 80%Dalma Galfi — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Anna Blinkovaavg 88.6¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$174.68	54% 16740-14044 (30784)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Anna Blinkovaavg 68¢	$715.88	$921.75	+$205.87	52% 13483-12339 (25822)
1L 1lovejump	Anna Blinkovaavg 82¢	$533.12	$574.19	+$41.07	53% 580-515 (1095)
LS LSS1	Anna Blinkovaavg 85¢	$409.36	$279.33	-$130.03	72% 1534-600 (2134)
tradecraft	Anna Blinkovaavg 67.2¢	$305.65	$263.9	-$41.75	52% 5820-5438 (11258)
RN1	Anna Blinkovaavg 67.2¢	$302.4	$261	-$41.4	54% 55325-47376 (102701)
GH ghostorder	Anna Blinkovaavg 88¢	$242.83	$260.82	+$17.99	62% 4231-2610 (6841)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Dalma Galfiavg 16.4¢	$434.89	$220.72	-$214.17	59% 44263-30624 (74887)
└ Dalma Galfi leg	Dalma Galfiavg 16.4¢	$359.92	$142.48	-$217.44
└ Anna Blinkova leg	Anna Blinkovaavg 89.6¢	$74.97	$78.24	+$3.27
TH thestingsnake	Anna Blinkovaavg 79.5¢	$331.25	$114.8	-$95.24	60% 3903-2647 (6550)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Dalma Galfiavg 38.3¢	$85.98	$94.39	+$8.41	58% 27870-20508 (48378)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Dalma Galfiavg 39¢	$31.2	$33.6	+$2.4	56% 6841-5479 (12320)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Dalma Galfiavg 38.6¢	$30.04	$32.65	+$2.62	62% 13578-8411 (21989)
VeryLucky888<$100	Anna Blinkovaavg 64¢	$22.8	$20.66	-$2.14	58% 40396-29173 (69569)
EF efntrick<$100	Anna Blinkovaavg 83¢	$12.9	$15	+$2.1	48% 3615-3873 (7488)
HRTrading<$100	Anna Blinkovaavg 68.1¢	$6.47	$9.5	+$1.27	54% 2570-2206 (4776)
PA pauleta23<$100	Anna Blinkovaavg 86¢	$10	$6.74	-$3.26	67% 23026-11429 (34455)

HomeRunHazard

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$1,959.99

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$174.68

Record

54%

16740-14044 (30784)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$715.88

Value

$921.75

PnL

+$205.87

Record

52%

13483-12339 (25822)

1lovejump

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$533.12

Value

$574.19

PnL

+$41.07

Record

53%

580-515 (1095)

LSS1

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$409.36

Value

$279.33

PnL

-$130.03

Record

72%

1534-600 (2134)

tradecraft

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$305.65

Value

$263.9

PnL

-$41.75

Record

52%

5820-5438 (11258)

RN1

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$302.4

Value

$261

PnL

-$41.4

Record

54%

55325-47376 (102701)

ghostorder

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$242.83

Value

$260.82

PnL

+$17.99

Record

62%

4231-2610 (6841)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Dalma Galfi

Invested

$434.89

Value

$220.72

PnL

-$214.17

Record

59%

44263-30624 (74887)

Both legs:

Dalma Galfi$359.9216.4¢-$217.44

Anna Blinkova$74.9789.6¢+$3.27

thestingsnake

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$331.25

Value

$114.8

PnL

-$95.24

Record

60%

3903-2647 (6550)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Dalma Galfi

Invested

$85.98

Value

$94.39

PnL

+$8.41

Record

58%

27870-20508 (48378)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Dalma Galfi

Invested

$31.2

Value

$33.6

PnL

+$2.4

Record

56%

6841-5479 (12320)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Dalma Galfi

Invested

$30.04

Value

$32.65

PnL

+$2.62

Record

62%

13578-8411 (21989)

VeryLucky888<$100

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$22.8

Value

$20.66

PnL

-$2.14

Record

58%

40396-29173 (69569)

efntrick<$100

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$12.9

Value

$15

PnL

+$2.1

Record

48%

3615-3873 (7488)

HRTrading<$100

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$6.47

Value

$9.5

PnL

+$1.27

Record

54%

2570-2206 (4776)

pauleta23<$100

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$10

Value

$6.74

PnL

-$3.26

Record

67%

23026-11429 (34455)

Research grade

NeutralAnna Blinkova at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Anna Blinkova

12 of 15 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Anna Blinkova wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.