Courmayeur: Susan Bandecchi vs Elsa Jacquemot

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Elsa Jacquemot (57%) · Elsa Jacquemot at 53¢ · $19K held · ends Nov 5

Susan Bandecchi48¢Elsa Jacquemot52¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Elsa Jacquemot

Consensus Traders

Elsa Jacquemot 57%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.4K

Combined PnL

$1.8K

Smart Money Entry

51.1¢ → 52.5¢

+3% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralElsa Jacquemot at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Elsa Jacquemot

8 of 14 top traders (57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Susan Bandecchi48%

Elsa Jacquemot53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Elsa Jacquemot8 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares13,851

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Susan Bandecchi6 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares6,005

Combined PnL+$443.88

Elsa Jacquemot — 57%Susan Bandecchi — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Susan Bandecchiavg 53.1¢	$7.3K	$6.0K	$-1.3K	59% 45098-31483 (76581)
└ Susan Bandecchi leg	Susan Bandecchiavg 53.1¢	$5.3K	$4.1K	$-1.3K
└ Elsa Jacquemot leg	Elsa Jacquemotavg 61.4¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$60.94
RN1	Elsa Jacquemotavg 45.1¢	$3.2K	$4.6K	+$1.4K	54% 56032-48155 (104187)
isco22	Elsa Jacquemotavg 57.9¢	$3.6K	$3.5K	-$86.53	64% 122-70 (192)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Susan Bandecchiavg 51.2¢	$2.1K	$2.9K	+$774.06	54% 17005-14250 (31255)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Susan Bandecchiavg 45.1¢	$973.06	$1.0K	+$45.31	52% 13655-12480 (26135)
└ Susan Bandecchi leg	Susan Bandecchiavg 45.1¢	$633.43	$569.04	-$64.39
└ Elsa Jacquemot leg	Elsa Jacquemotavg 45¢	$339.64	$449.33	+$109.7
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Susan Bandecchiavg 62.4¢	$879.58	$512.94	-$214.96	60% 3998-2687 (6685)
tradecraftCTR	Susan Bandecchiavg 45.2¢	$511.32	$402.71	-$108.61	51% 5923-5598 (11521)
poshposh	Elsa Jacquemotavg 47.1¢	$217.49	$277.19	+$59.69	59% 9678-6667 (16345)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	Elsa Jacquemotavg 59.4¢	$131.36	$112.58	-$18.78	58% 18495-13582 (32077)
└ Susan Bandecchi leg	Susan Bandecchiavg 52.8¢	$51.72	$58.31	+$6.59
└ Elsa Jacquemot leg	Elsa Jacquemotavg 59.4¢	$79.64	$54.27	-$25.37
HRTrading<$100	Elsa Jacquemotavg 72¢	$53.29	$46.63	-$6.66	52% 3691-3354 (7045)
VeryLucky888<$100	Elsa Jacquemotavg 52¢	$13.95	$16.9	+$2.95	58% 41218-29884 (71102)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Elsa Jacquemotavg 48.8¢	$14.65	$14.85	+$0.2	59% 30219-20925 (51144)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Susan Bandecchiavg 55.4¢	$20	$13.36	-$6.64	67% 23205-11605 (34810)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Elsa Jacquemotavg 52¢	$2.6	$3.15	+$0.55	47% 2164-2475 (4639)
TRCM<$100	Elsa Jacquemotavg 58¢	$2.9	$3.15	+$0.25	55% 3922-3162 (7084)
FL flatbarrelCTR<$100	Susan Bandecchiavg 32¢	$3.2	$3.15	-$0.05	58% 2737-1964 (4701)
GH ghostorderCTR<$100	Susan Bandecchiavg 49¢	$2.88	$2.97	+$0.09	62% 4319-2662 (6981)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Susan Bandecchi

Invested

$7,330.54

Value

$6.0K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

59%

45098-31483 (76581)

Both legs:

Susan Bandecchi$5,321.0653.1¢$-1.3K

Elsa Jacquemot$2,009.4861.4¢-$60.94

RN1

Elsa Jacquemot

Invested

$3,239.67

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

54%

56032-48155 (104187)

isco22

Elsa Jacquemot

Invested

$3,581.58

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$86.53

Record

64%

122-70 (192)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Susan Bandecchi

Invested

$2,119.81

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$774.06

Record

54%

17005-14250 (31255)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Susan Bandecchi

Invested

$973.06

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$45.31

Record

52%

13655-12480 (26135)

Both legs:

Susan Bandecchi$633.4345.1¢-$64.39

Elsa Jacquemot$339.6445¢+$109.7

thestingsnakeCTR

Susan Bandecchi

Invested

$879.58

Value

$512.94

PnL

-$214.96

Record

60%

3998-2687 (6685)

tradecraftCTR

Susan Bandecchi

Invested

$511.32

Value

$402.71

PnL

-$108.61

Record

51%

5923-5598 (11521)

poshposh

Elsa Jacquemot

Invested

$217.49

Value

$277.19

PnL

+$59.69

Record

59%

9678-6667 (16345)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

Elsa Jacquemot

Invested

$131.36

Value

$112.58

PnL

-$18.78

Record

58%

18495-13582 (32077)

Both legs:

Susan Bandecchi$51.7252.8¢+$6.59

Elsa Jacquemot$79.6459.4¢-$25.37

HRTrading<$100

Elsa Jacquemot

Invested

$53.29

Value

$46.63

PnL

-$6.66

Record

52%

3691-3354 (7045)

VeryLucky888<$100

Elsa Jacquemot

Invested

$13.95

Value

$16.9

PnL

+$2.95

Record

58%

41218-29884 (71102)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Elsa Jacquemot

Invested

$14.65

Value

$14.85

PnL

+$0.2

Record

59%

30219-20925 (51144)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Susan Bandecchi

Invested

$20

Value

$13.36

PnL

-$6.64

Record

67%

23205-11605 (34810)

ameisgoat11<$100

Elsa Jacquemot

Invested

$2.6

Value

$3.15

PnL

+$0.55

Record

47%

2164-2475 (4639)

TRCM<$100

Elsa Jacquemot

Invested

$2.9

Value

$3.15

PnL

+$0.25

Record

55%

3922-3162 (7084)

flatbarrelCTR<$100

Susan Bandecchi

Invested

$3.2

Value

$3.15

PnL

-$0.05

Record

58%

2737-1964 (4701)

ghostorderCTR<$100

Susan Bandecchi

Invested

$2.88

Value

$2.97

PnL

+$0.09

Record

62%

4319-2662 (6981)

Research grade

NeutralElsa Jacquemot at 53%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Elsa Jacquemot

8 of 14 top traders (57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Elsa Jacquemot wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.