Set Handicap: Paula Badosa (-1.5) vs Sinja Kraus (+1.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Paula Badosa (50%) · Paula Badosa at 100¢ · $727 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Paula Badosa
6
Paula Badosa 50%
$726.52
$38.3
49.3¢ → 100¢
+103% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralPaula Badosa at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Sinja Krausavg 50¢ | $265.16 | $267.81 | +$2.65 | 49% 18584-19002 (37586) |
 VeryLucky888 | Paula Badosaavg 44¢ | $224.42 | $252.47 | +$28.05 | 58% 40728-29460 (70188) |
MY myxi | Paula Badosaavg 63¢ | $125.98 | $162.98 | +$37 | 68% 334-158 (492) |
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR<$100 | Sinja Krausavg 37¢ | $60.55 | $30.28 | -$30.28 | 53% 3103-2730 (5833) |
DA darkumbreon88<$100 | Paula Badosaavg 45¢ | $7.25 | $7.98 | +$0.73 | 65% 1664-897 (2561) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Sinja Krausavg 52¢ | $4.85 | $5 | +$0.15 | 47% 2037-2339 (4376) |
Invested
$265.16
Value
$267.81
PnL
+$2.65
Record
49%
18584-19002 (37586)
VeryLucky888Invested
$224.42
Value
$252.47
PnL
+$28.05
Record
58%
40728-29460 (70188)
Invested
$125.98
Value
$162.98
PnL
+$37
Record
68%
334-158 (492)
Invested
$60.55
Value
$30.28
PnL
-$30.28
Record
53%
3103-2730 (5833)
Invested
$7.25
Value
$7.98
PnL
+$0.73
Record
65%
1664-897 (2561)
Invested
$4.85
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.15
Record
47%
2037-2339 (4376)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.