Guangzhou Open: Paula Badosa vs Sinja Kraus
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Paula Badosa (67%) · Paula Badosa at 72¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4
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Neutral
Paula Badosa
3
Paula Badosa 67%
$1.2K
-$22.53
71.9¢ → 72¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralPaula Badosa at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Paula Badosaavg 72¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$21.79 | 58% 40527-29300 (69827) |
 0xheavy888 | Paula Badosaavg 71¢ | $168 | $118.44 | -$0.84 | 56% 6856-5494 (12350) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Sinja Krausavg 28¢ | $5.67 | $5.67 | +$0.1 | 58% 27917-20560 (48477) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.